Study of Monkeypox Virus Transmission Dynamics: Vaccination Effect and Sensitivity Analysis

Abstract

Monkeypox is an invasive infection that originated in Nigeria and has propagated to more areas worldwide. It influences Nigeria, the USA and the United Kingdom. It belongs to the Poxiviridae family and is found to be an Orthopox virus genus. In this work, we developed a fatalistic compartment model of the monkeypox virus. With the eleven variables, we demonstrated a non-linear set of differential equations, namely susceptible human individuals, vaccinated human individuals, exposed human individuals, quarantined human individuals, hospitalized human individuals, recovered human individuals, susceptible rodent individuals, exposed rodent individuals, infected rodent individuals, and recovered rodent individuals. We studied the conception of disease-free equilibrium and found the equilibrium points. For calculate the reproduction number we used Vandriessche next-generation matrix. Additionally, we conducted sensitivity analyses. MATLAB has been used for numerical simulation and graphical display of the proposed model. The study shows that increasing monkeypox virus vaccination rates effectively reduces the number of infections.