The impacts of climate change on rainfall modeling in the Pantanal of Mato Grosso do Sul
DOI:
https://doi.org/10.4025/actascitechnol.v43i1.55112Palavras-chave:
Rainfall; adjustments; probability distribution; quality tests; modelingResumo
The most significant and influential meteorological element in environmental conditions and human activities is precipitation. The objective of this study was to adjust eight probability distributions to monthly, seasonal and annual rainfall data in the Pantanal of Mato Grosso do Sul, Brazil, using a time series of data (1983-2013) by the National Meteorological Water Agency (ANA). The performance evaluation of different probability distribution models was assessed by the quality of fit of the selected probability distributions for precipitation data. Quality tests as chi-square, Kolmogorov-Smirnov (KS) and Anderson-Darling (AD), the information criteria as Akaike (AIC) and the Bayesian criterion (BIC) were used. Then the mean root square error (RMSE) and the coefficient of determination (R2) were applied. The analyzes were made monthly, annually and by seasons. The 3-parameter Lognormal distribution performs the best for all twelve months and provides the best-fit to the monthly rainfall data. Thus characterizing a dry period that runs from May to September and a rainy period between the months of October and April, it was observed that the 3-parameter Lognormal distribution has best adjustment for spring and summer, and for winter and autumn the 2-parameter Gamma and 3-parameter Gamma distribution performed better. For annual observations, the function that best fits is 3-parameter Weibull distribution.
Downloads
Downloads
Publicado
Como Citar
Edição
Seção
Licença
DECLARAÇíO DE ORIGINALIDADE E DIREITOS AUTORAIS
Declaro que o presente artigo é original, não tendo sido submetido í publicação em qualquer outro periódico nacional ou internacional, quer seja em parte ou em sua totalidade.
Os direitos autorais pertencem exclusivamente aos autores. Os direitos de licenciamento utilizados pelo periódico é a licença Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 (CC BY 4.0): são permitidos o compartilhamento (cópia e distribuição do material em qualqer meio ou formato) e adaptação (remix, transformação e criação de material a partir do conteúdo assim licenciado para quaisquer fins, inclusive comerciais.
Recomenda-se a leitura desse link para maiores informações sobre o tema: fornecimento de créditos e referências de forma correta, entre outros detalhes cruciais para uso adequado do material licenciado.
