The impacts of climate change on rainfall modeling in the Pantanal of Mato Grosso do Sul

Autores

  • Ivana Pobocikova University of Zilina
  • Amaury de Souza Universidade Federal de Mato Grosso do Sul
  • Marcel Carvalho Abreu Universidade Federal Rural do Rio de Janeiro
  • José Francisco de Oliveira-Júnior Universidade Federal de Alagoas
  • Cí­cero Manoel dos Santos Universidade Federal do Para
  • Taynã Maria Pinto Lins 6Universidade Federal de Pernambuco
  • Flavio Aristone Universidade Federal de Mato Grosso do Sul
  • Pedro Luiz Ramos Pontificia Universidad Católica de Chile

DOI:

https://doi.org/10.4025/actascitechnol.v43i1.55112

Palavras-chave:

Rainfall; adjustments; probability distribution; quality tests; modeling

Resumo

The most significant and influential meteorological element in environmental conditions and human activities is precipitation. The objective of this study was to adjust eight probability distributions to monthly, seasonal and annual rainfall data in the Pantanal of Mato Grosso do Sul, Brazil, using a time series of data (1983-2013) by the National Meteorological Water Agency (ANA). The performance evaluation of different probability distribution models was assessed by the quality of fit of the selected probability distributions for precipitation data. Quality tests as chi-square, Kolmogorov-Smirnov (KS) and Anderson-Darling (AD), the information criteria as Akaike (AIC) and the Bayesian criterion (BIC) were used. Then the mean root square error (RMSE) and the coefficient of determination (R2) were applied. The analyzes were made monthly, annually and by seasons. The 3-parameter Lognormal distribution performs the best for all twelve months and provides the best-fit to the monthly rainfall data. Thus characterizing a dry period that runs from May to September and a rainy period between the months of October and April, it was observed that the 3-parameter Lognormal distribution has best adjustment for spring and summer, and for winter and autumn the 2-parameter Gamma and 3-parameter Gamma distribution performed better. For annual observations, the function that best fits is 3-parameter Weibull distribution.

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Publicado

2021-09-23

Como Citar

Pobocikova, I. ., Souza, A. de, Abreu, M. C. ., Oliveira-Júnior, J. F. de ., Santos, C. M. dos ., Lins, T. M. P. ., Aristone, F. ., & Ramos, P. L. . (2021). The impacts of climate change on rainfall modeling in the Pantanal of Mato Grosso do Sul. Acta Scientiarum. Technology, 43(1), e55112. https://doi.org/10.4025/actascitechnol.v43i1.55112

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Seção

Geografia

 

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0.8
2019CiteScore
 
 
36th percentile
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