Modeling the Transmission Dynamics and Stability of Nipah Virus

Resumen

 Nipah virus (NiV) is a zoonosis categorized by high transmission and death rates. Existing SIR,
SEIR and SIRD-type models mainly focus on transmission from living infectious individuals and from dead
bodies of infected persons that are not handled safely. The SEIR model by Lakshmi and Sabarmathi, though,
does not include disease-induced mortality or corpse-mediated transmission, which may lead to results, such
as an overestimation of the epidemic peak and an underestimation of the outbreak duration. In this work,
the existing framework is extended by the addition of an infectious deceased compartment. An SEIRD model
is developed that considers both direct human-to-human and corpse-mediated transmission. Estimations of
parameters are taken from recent outbreaks, and the basic reproduction number, RD, is derived analytically.
Python programs are used for mathematical simulations. The results show that when corpse-mediated transmission
is included, the projected epidemic peak is lower, and there is a delay in the time to reach the peak.
The model also provides a better estimate of the total outbreak size compared to the classical SEIR model.
Sensitivity analysis using partial rank correlation coefficients (PRCC) shows that direct transmission (β1) and
corpse removal rate (ω) are the most influential parameters. The SEIRD model, by including postmortem
transmission, matches observed outbreak patterns more closely and highlights the need to combine isolation
with safe burial practices to control NiV epidemics.