A Comparative Analysis of Probability Education in Türkiye and New Zealand through International Frameworks

Comparative Analysis of Probability Education

Resumen

Probability education is central to mathematics curricula, supporting reasoning under uncertainty and statistical thinking. However, the conceptualization and sequencing of probability instruction differ across educational systems in terms of conceptual scope, developmental coherence, and pedagogical orientation. The purpose of this study is to examine comparatively the probability education in the mathematics curricula of T¨urkiye and New Zealand through internationally recognized theoretical frameworks. The study adopts a qualitative comparative document analysis design, using the official mathematics curriculum documents of both countries as primary data sources. The analysis is guided by Gal’s Probability Literacy Model,
the Fundamental Probabilistic Ideas framework, and the GAISE II developmental levels. The results indicate that both curricula predominantly structure probability instruction at intuitive and experimental levels, with strong coverage of fundamental concepts such as randomness and sample space, yet demonstrate significant gaps in advanced concepts foundational to statistical inference.