Mathematical Model of a COVID-19 Transmission in Jordan

Resumo

This paper examines the spread of the Covid-19 pandemic in Jordan, a country
in the Middle East. The first recorded case dates back to March 2, 2020. During
the pandemic, Jordan implemented various strategies to manage the pandemic,
including lockdowns, social distancing, and school closures. In this study, we develop
a fractional-order mathematical model to investigate the dynamics of the
pandemic. The model is analyzed both qualitatively and numerically. Qualitatively,
it reveals two equilibrium points: the Covid-19 free equilibrium and the
Covid-19 endemic equilibrium. The local asymptotic stability of these equilibrium
points is explored, showing a dependence on the basic reproduction number
R0. Data from the Covid-19 dashboard of the Jordanian Ministry of Health is
used to validate our model. Numerical simulations provide several typical solution
paths with biological explanations.