MODELAGEM DINÂMICA DO DESMATAMENTO NO SUL DA AMAZÔNIA OCIDENTAL

Abstract

Rondônia state is among those that make up the Western Amazon region, which had the largest deforested area. This occurred due to the National State's option for private land ownership and capitalist expansion, to the detriment of conservation and traditional forms of use. Thus, the objective is to carry out the dynamic modeling of deforestation from 2015 to 2050 in the state of Rondônia. Methodology was contemplated by environmental modeling and decision making based on the Geographic Information System (GIS). Dynamic modeling of deforestation was developed using the software "DINAMICA EGO". Results revealed that the advance of deforestation until 2015 occupied 37.68% of the area of the state of Rondônia and will reach 54.87%, by 2050. In addition, deforestation will be greater in areas close to the road network, urban areas and areas already deforested. On the other hand, conservation of vegetation will be more expressive with special areas, indigenous lands and conservation units. Finally, from the projection map of the removal of vegetation for the year 2050 it was possible to verify that the removal of vegetation will be greater in the northwestern portion, especially in the municipality of Porto Velho.