INCERTEZA, EXPECTATIVAS E CONFIANÇA
INCERTEZA, EXPECTATIVAS E CONFIANÇA
Palavras-chave:
incerteza, entusiasmo empresarial, confiança, expectativas
Resumo
As expectativas constituem um fator extremamente importante no processo de tomada de decisão, a qual tem forte influência das instituições. O ganhador do Prêmio Nobel de Economia 2002, Daniel Kahneman, acabou chamando a atenção para o lado psicológico dos agentes econômicos, ao tentar mensurar a incerteza através de modelos matemáticos, deixando em segundo plano o comportamento e funcionamento das instituições. No entanto, há fortes evidências que os agentes econômicos sob cenários de incerteza rompem com os postulados tradicionais da teoria econômica. As anomalias e vieses comportamentais revelam não só a importância do comportamento humano na economia, como o papel das instituições. Como a economia comportamental pode contribuir e auxiliar os policy makers em tempos de crise e incerteza?
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Referências
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DEQUECH,, D. (1999), Expectations and confidence under uncertainty, Journal of Post Keynesian Economics, 21(3): 415-30.
DAVIDSON, P. Money and the Real World. New York. The Macmillan Press Ltda,1978
DOSI, G.,EGIDI, M. (1991), ‘ Substantive and procedural uncertanty- an explanation of economic behaviour in changing enviromments’, Journal of Evolucionary Economics,1(2): 145-168.
EDWARDS, W. Behavioral decision theory. Annual Review of Psychology 12, 473-498, 1954.
ELLSBERG. Risk ambiguity and the Savage axioms.The Quartely Journal of Economics, 75(4): 643-669. Oxford, 1961.
FEHR E. and A. FALLK (2002), Psychological foundations of incentives. 2001
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HEINER,R. Imperfect decisions, Routinized bahaviour and Intertial change. In: Dosi, Freeman, Nelson, Soete, Silverberg,1988
HICKS, J. Economic perspectives. Oxford: Clarendon Press, 1977.
HOLD, R., PRESSMAN, S. A New Guide to Post Keynesian Economics. Londres: Ed.
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MUTH, John. Rational expectations and the theory of price movements. Econometrica, New York, v. 29, n. 3, p. 315-335, jan. 2012.
NEUMANN, J., MORGENSTERN, O. Theory of Games and Economic Behavior, Princeton University Press, Princeton, 1953.
KAHNEMAN, D., TVERSKY, A. Prospect Theory: An analysis of decision under risk, Econometrica 47, p.263-291, 1979.
KAHNEMAN, D., TVERSKY (1972), “Subjective probability: A judgment of representativeness”, Cognitive Psychology 3, 430-454.
KAHNEMAN, D., TVERSKY (1973), “On the psychology of prediction”, PsychologicalReview 80, 237-251.
KAHNEMAN, D., J. KNESTCH, and R. THALER (1986), “Fairness and the assumptions of economics”, Journal of Business 59, S285-S300
KEYNES, J. Teoria geral do emprego do Juro e da Moeda. São Paulo:Ed.Atlas,1982
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LUCAS,R., SARGENT, T. Rational expectations and Econometric Practises, Minneapolis: University of Minnesota Press, 1981.
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SHACKE,G.L.S. Decison, order and time in economic affairs. Cambridge:CambridgeUniv. Press: 1961
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SHACKE,G.L.S. Time in Economics. Amsterdam:North Holland, 1958
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SIMON, H. (1976), ‘ From substantive to procedural rationality,’in Latsis, S. (ed.)(1976), Method and Apriaisal in Economics, Cambridge University Press.
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THE ROYAL SWEDISCH ACADEMY OF SCIENCES. Market with Asymmetric Information: George Ackerlof, Michael Spence, Joseph Stiglitz. , Stockholm, p. 1-20, out. 2001.
TVERKY, A. D. KANEHMANN (1971), “Belief in the law of small numbers”, Psychological Bulletin 76, 105-110.
TVERKY, A. D. KANEHMANN (1973), “Availability: A heursistic for judging frequency and probability”, Cognitive Psychology 5, 207-232.
TVERKY, A. D. KANEHMANN (1974), “Judgment under uncertainty: Heuristics and biases”, Science 185, 1124-1131.
TVERKY, A. D. KANEHMANN (1982), “Judgment of and by representativeness”,in Kahneman, D., P. Slovic, and A. Tversky (eds.). Judgment Under Uncertainty: Heuristics and Biases, Cambridge University Press, Cambridge.
ALLAIS, M. Fondements d’une Théorie Positive des Choix Comportant un Risque et Critique des Postulats et Axiomes de I’Ecole Americaine, In: Econometrie, Colloques Internationaux du Centre de la Recherche Scientifique, vol. XL, p. 257-332, Paris, 1953.(Translated into English in M. Allais and O. Hagen(eds): Expected Utility Hyphotesis and the Allais Paradox, D. Reidel Publishing Company, Dortrecht, Holland, 1979)
BAUSOR, R. “The rational-expectations hypothesis and the epistemics of time”. Cambridge Journal of Economics. V.6.n.3,1984.
DAVIDSON, P. Financial Markets, Money & the real World. Northampton. Edward Elgar.2002.
DEQUECH, D. (2011), Uncertainty: typology and refinements of existing concepts, Journal of Economics Issues, 45(3):621-640
DEQUECH,, D. (1999), Expectations and confidence under uncertainty, Journal of Post Keynesian Economics, 21(3): 415-30.
DAVIDSON, P. Money and the Real World. New York. The Macmillan Press Ltda,1978
DOSI, G.,EGIDI, M. (1991), ‘ Substantive and procedural uncertanty- an explanation of economic behaviour in changing enviromments’, Journal of Evolucionary Economics,1(2): 145-168.
EDWARDS, W. Behavioral decision theory. Annual Review of Psychology 12, 473-498, 1954.
ELLSBERG. Risk ambiguity and the Savage axioms.The Quartely Journal of Economics, 75(4): 643-669. Oxford, 1961.
FEHR E. and A. FALLK (2002), Psychological foundations of incentives. 2001
Schumpeter Lecture, European Economic Review 46, 687-724.
HEINER,R. Imperfect decisions, Routinized bahaviour and Intertial change. In: Dosi, Freeman, Nelson, Soete, Silverberg,1988
HICKS, J. Economic perspectives. Oxford: Clarendon Press, 1977.
HOLD, R., PRESSMAN, S. A New Guide to Post Keynesian Economics. Londres: Ed.
Jonathan Michie.2005
MUTH, John. Rational expectations and the theory of price movements. Econometrica, New York, v. 29, n. 3, p. 315-335, jan. 2012.
NEUMANN, J., MORGENSTERN, O. Theory of Games and Economic Behavior, Princeton University Press, Princeton, 1953.
KAHNEMAN, D., TVERSKY, A. Prospect Theory: An analysis of decision under risk, Econometrica 47, p.263-291, 1979.
KAHNEMAN, D., TVERSKY (1972), “Subjective probability: A judgment of representativeness”, Cognitive Psychology 3, 430-454.
KAHNEMAN, D., TVERSKY (1973), “On the psychology of prediction”, PsychologicalReview 80, 237-251.
KAHNEMAN, D., J. KNESTCH, and R. THALER (1986), “Fairness and the assumptions of economics”, Journal of Business 59, S285-S300
KEYNES, J. Teoria geral do emprego do Juro e da Moeda. São Paulo:Ed.Atlas,1982
KNIGHT, F.H. Risco, Incerteza, Lucro. Ed. Expressão e Cultura, Rio de Janeiro, 1972
LUCAS,R., SARGENT, T. Rational expectations and Econometric Practises, Minneapolis: University of Minnesota Press, 1981.
SAVAGE, L. The Foundations of Statistics. 2 ed. New York: Wiley, 1954.
SANDRONI, P. Dicionário de Economia do Século XXI. Ed. Best Seller, São Paulo, 2007.
SHACKE,G.L.S.Expectations in economics. Cambridge: Cambridge University Press,1952.
SHACKE,G.L.S. Decison, order and time in economic affairs. Cambridge:CambridgeUniv. Press: 1961
SHACKE,G.L.S. Expectations, enterprise and profit.London:Allen and Unwin,1970.
SHACKE,G.L.S. Time in Economics. Amsterdam:North Holland, 1958
SHILLER, R. ACKERLOF, G. O How Human Psychology Drives the Economomy, and Why it Matters for Global Capitalism. Princeton Press. New Jersey, 2009.
SHILLER, R., 2010. Irrational Exuberance. Princeton Press. New Jersey, 2010.
SIMON, H. (1976), ‘ From substantive to procedural rationality,’in Latsis, S. (ed.)(1976), Method and Apriaisal in Economics, Cambridge University Press.
SNOWDON, B; VANE, W. R. Modern macroeconomics. Cheltenham UK
Northampton, MA/ USA: Edward Elgar, 2005. 807p.
THE ROYAL SWEDISCH ACADEMY OF SCIENCES. Foundations of Behavioral and Experimental Economics: Daniel Kahneman and Vernon Smith. , Stockholm, p. 1-25, dez. 2012.
THE ROYAL SWEDISCH ACADEMY OF SCIENCES. Market with Asymmetric Information: George Ackerlof, Michael Spence, Joseph Stiglitz. , Stockholm, p. 1-20, out. 2001.
TVERKY, A. D. KANEHMANN (1971), “Belief in the law of small numbers”, Psychological Bulletin 76, 105-110.
TVERKY, A. D. KANEHMANN (1973), “Availability: A heursistic for judging frequency and probability”, Cognitive Psychology 5, 207-232.
TVERKY, A. D. KANEHMANN (1974), “Judgment under uncertainty: Heuristics and biases”, Science 185, 1124-1131.
TVERKY, A. D. KANEHMANN (1982), “Judgment of and by representativeness”,in Kahneman, D., P. Slovic, and A. Tversky (eds.). Judgment Under Uncertainty: Heuristics and Biases, Cambridge University Press, Cambridge.
Publicado
2020-11-11
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Perez da Silva, E., & Roncaglia de Carvalho, A. (2020). INCERTEZA, EXPECTATIVAS E CONFIANÇA. A Economia Em Revista - AERE, 27(3), 1-15. Recuperado de https://periodicos.uem.br/ojs/index.php/EconRev/article/view/54755
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