Comercio internacional y modelo de gravedad: evidencia reciente en análisis teórico y empírico
Palabras clave:
modelo gravitacional, comercio internacional, fundamento teórico
Resumen
A pesar de los sólidos fundamentos teóricos y del notable éxito empírico del modelo gravitacional, a menudo se utilizó sin fundamento y sin tener en cuenta los desafíos econométricos que pueden generar estimaciones sesgadas e inconsistentes. Por tanto, este trabajo presenta una amplia revisión teórica del modelo y demuestra su aplicación en la forma recomendada por la literatura especializada. Cabe señalar que: 1) Deben incluirse datos sobre el comercio internacional; 2) Se deben agregar los efectos país fijos cada año; 3) También deben adoptarse efectos fijos de pares de países, y; 4) Se debe utilizar el estimador de Pseudo Máxima Verosimilitud de Poisson. Por ejemplo, se estimó una regresión que verificaba el impacto de la libertad económica de las naciones en sus exportaciones. Los resultados mostraron que existe una relación positiva entre ellos. Finalmente, se espera que el presente trabajo sirva de instrumento para varias investigaciones en el área, generando nueva evidencia y orientando la formulación de políticas comerciales más eficientes.
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Citas
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HUMMELS, D. L. Toward a Geography of Trade Costs. Purdue University. 54 p. 2001.
KOX, H. L. M.; ROJAS-ROMAGOSA, H. How trade and investment agreements affect bilateral foreign direct investment: Results from a structural gravity model. World Economy, n. March, p. 1–40, 2020.
NAANWAAB, C.; DIARRASSOUBA, M. The impact of economic freedom on bilateral trade: A cross-country analysis. International Journal of Business Management and Economic Research, v. 4, n. 1, p. 668–672, 2013.
NUNN, N. Relationship-specificity, incomplete contracts, and the pattern of trade. The Quarterly Journal of Economics, Vol. 122 No. 2, pp. 569-600, 2007.
OLIVERO, MARÍA PÍA; YOTOV, Y. Dynamic Gravity: Endogenous Country Size and Asset Accumulatio. Canadian Journal of Economics, v. 45, n. 1, 2012.
PIERMARTINI, R.; YOTOV, Y. V. Estimating Trade Policy Effects with Structural GravityCESIFO WORKING PAPERS: CESIFO WORKING PAPER. [s.l: s.n.]. Disponível em:. Acesso em: 26 out. 2020.
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RANJAN, P.; LEE, J.Y. Contract enforcement and international trade. Economics and Politics, Vol. 19 No. 2, pp. 191-218, 2007.
RODRIK, D.; SUBRAMANIAN, A.; TREBBI, F. Institutions rule: the primacy of institutions over geography and integration in economic development. Journal of Economic Growth, Vol. 9 No. 2, pp. 131-165, 2004.
SANTOS SILVA, J M C E TENREYRO, S. The log of Gravity. Review of Economics and Statistics, v. 88, n. November, p. 641–658, 2006.
SANTOS SILVA, J. M. C.; TENREYRO, S. Further simulation evidence on the performance of the Poisson pseudo-maximum likelihood estimator ✩. Economics Letters, v. 112, p. 220–222, 2011.
THE HERITAGE FOUNDATION. Index of Economic Freedom. Disponível em:
TINBERGEN, J. Shaping the world economy: suggestions for an international economic policy. [s.l.] New York: Twentieth Century Fund, 1962.
VEALL, M. R.; ZIMMERMANN, K. F. Pseudo-R2 measures for some common limited dependent variable models. Journal of Economic Surveys, v. 10, n. 3, p. 241–259, 1 set. 1996.
VEENHOVEN, R. Freedom and Happiness: A comparative study in 46 nations in the Early 1990´s. In: Diener, E. & E.M. Culture and subjective well-being. MIT press, Cambridge, MA USA, 2000.
YOTOV, Y. V. et al. An Advanced Guide to Trade Policy Analysis: The Structural Gravity Model. [s.l.] UNCTAD, 2016.
ANDERSON, J. E. A Theoretical Foundation for the Gravity Equation. American Economic Review, v. 69, n. 1, 1979.
ANDERSON, J. E. AND VAN WINCOOP, E. Gravity with Gravitas: A Solution to the Border Puzzle. American Economic Review, v. 93, n. 1, 2003.
ANDERSON, J. E.; YOTOV, Y. V. Terms of trade and global efficiency effects of free trade agreements, 1990-2002. Journal of International Economics, v. 99, p. 279–298, 1 mar. 2016.
BACCHETTA, MARC. ET AL. A Practical Guide to Trade Policy Analysis. [s.l.] WTO, 2012.
BAIER, S. L.; BERGSTRAND, J. H. Estimating the effects of free trade agreements on international trade flows using matching econometrics. Journal of International Economics, v. 77, n. 1, p. 63–76, 2009.
BALDWIN, R.; TAGLIONI, D. Gravity for Dummies and Dummies for Gravity Equations: NBER WORKING PAPER SERIES. [s.l: s.n.]. Disponível em:
BORCHERT, I., LARCH, M., SHIKHER, S., AND YOTOV, Y. The International Trade and Production Database for Estimation (ITPD-E). Disponível em:
CORREIA, S.; GUIMARÃES, P.; ZYLKIN, T. Z. Fast Poisson estimation with high-dimensional fixed effects. Stata Journal, v. 20, n. 1, p. 95–115, 2020.
DEARDORFF, A. V. Determinants of Bilateral Trade: Does Gravity Work in a Neoclassical World? In: JEFFREY A. FRANKEL (Ed.). . The Regionalization of the World Economy. [s.l.] University of Chicago Press, 1998.
DEPKEN, C. A.; SONORA, R. J. Asymmetric Effects of Economic Freedom on International Trade Flows. International Journal of Business and Economics, v. 4, n. 2, p. 141–155, 2005.
FEENSTRA, R. C. Advanced International Trade: Theory and Evidence. [s.l.] Princeton university press, 2004.
GOPINATH, M.; BATARSEH, F. A.; BECKMAN, J. Machine Learning in gravity models: an application to agricultural trade: NBER WORKING PAPER SERIES. Cambridge, MA: [s.n.]. Disponível em:
GOURIEROUX, C.; MONFORT, A.; TROGNON, A. Pseudo Maximum Likelihood Methods: Theory. Econometrica, v. 52, n. 3, p. 681, maio 1984.
HEAD, K.; MAYER, T. Gravity Equations: Workhorse,Toolkit, and Cookbook. In: Handbook of International Economics. [s.l.] Elsevier B.V., 2014. v. 4p. 131–195.
HEID, B.; LARCH, M.; YOTOV, Y. Estimating the Effects of Non-discriminatory Trade Policies within Structural Gravity ModelsDrexel University Working Paper Series. [s.l: s.n.].
HUMMELS, D. L. Toward a Geography of Trade Costs. Purdue University. 54 p. 2001.
KOX, H. L. M.; ROJAS-ROMAGOSA, H. How trade and investment agreements affect bilateral foreign direct investment: Results from a structural gravity model. World Economy, n. March, p. 1–40, 2020.
NAANWAAB, C.; DIARRASSOUBA, M. The impact of economic freedom on bilateral trade: A cross-country analysis. International Journal of Business Management and Economic Research, v. 4, n. 1, p. 668–672, 2013.
NUNN, N. Relationship-specificity, incomplete contracts, and the pattern of trade. The Quarterly Journal of Economics, Vol. 122 No. 2, pp. 569-600, 2007.
OLIVERO, MARÍA PÍA; YOTOV, Y. Dynamic Gravity: Endogenous Country Size and Asset Accumulatio. Canadian Journal of Economics, v. 45, n. 1, 2012.
PIERMARTINI, R.; YOTOV, Y. V. Estimating Trade Policy Effects with Structural GravityCESIFO WORKING PAPERS: CESIFO WORKING PAPER. [s.l: s.n.]. Disponível em:
RABELO, A. O que é machine learning? Entenda essa tendência no marketing digital! Disponível em:
RANJAN, P.; LEE, J.Y. Contract enforcement and international trade. Economics and Politics, Vol. 19 No. 2, pp. 191-218, 2007.
RODRIK, D.; SUBRAMANIAN, A.; TREBBI, F. Institutions rule: the primacy of institutions over geography and integration in economic development. Journal of Economic Growth, Vol. 9 No. 2, pp. 131-165, 2004.
SANTOS SILVA, J M C E TENREYRO, S. The log of Gravity. Review of Economics and Statistics, v. 88, n. November, p. 641–658, 2006.
SANTOS SILVA, J. M. C.; TENREYRO, S. Further simulation evidence on the performance of the Poisson pseudo-maximum likelihood estimator ✩. Economics Letters, v. 112, p. 220–222, 2011.
THE HERITAGE FOUNDATION. Index of Economic Freedom. Disponível em:
TINBERGEN, J. Shaping the world economy: suggestions for an international economic policy. [s.l.] New York: Twentieth Century Fund, 1962.
VEALL, M. R.; ZIMMERMANN, K. F. Pseudo-R2 measures for some common limited dependent variable models. Journal of Economic Surveys, v. 10, n. 3, p. 241–259, 1 set. 1996.
VEENHOVEN, R. Freedom and Happiness: A comparative study in 46 nations in the Early 1990´s. In: Diener, E. & E.M. Culture and subjective well-being. MIT press, Cambridge, MA USA, 2000.
YOTOV, Y. V. et al. An Advanced Guide to Trade Policy Analysis: The Structural Gravity Model. [s.l.] UNCTAD, 2016.
Publicado
2021-12-12
Cómo citar
Ferreira, C. R. C. (2021). Comercio internacional y modelo de gravedad: evidencia reciente en análisis teórico y empírico. A Economia Em Revista - AERE, 29(1), 1-13. Recuperado a partir de https://periodicos.uem.br/ojs/index.php/EconRev/article/view/58335
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Derechos de autor 2021 A Economia em Revista - AERE
Esta obra está bajo licencia internacional Creative Commons Reconocimiento-NoComercial 4.0.
