O PADRÃO DA POLÍTICA FISCAL PARA GRUPOS DE PAÍSES: CONSENSO DA LITERATURA, TERMOS DE TROCA E NÃO LINEARIDADE.
Resumen
Este artigo investiga o padrão da política fiscal para três grupos de países desenvolvidos e em desenvolvimento: renda baixa (LIC), renda média alta (MIC) e renda alta (HIC). Além disto, analisa a relação entre política fiscal e termos de troca. Utilizando técnicas de GMM (Generalized Method of Moments) para dados em painel, no período de 1995 a 2010, as evidências indicam que o padrão da política fiscal, tanto em relação ao PIB quanto em relação aos termos de troca, convergem para o consenso de que países em desenvolvimento adotam políticas fiscais pró-cíclicas e os desenvolvidos contracíclicas. Além disto, há uma relação não linear, na forma de U invertido, entre o saldo orçamentário e os termos de troca, para os países de renda alta.
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