INCERTEZA, EXPECTATIVAS E CONFIANÇA
INCERTEZA, EXPECTATIVAS E CONFIANÇA
Keywords:
uncertainty, animal spirits, confidence, expectations
Abstract
Expectations constitute an extremely important factor in the decision-making process and this has a strong influence of institutions, and the winner of the 2002 Nobel Prize in Economics, Daniel Kahneman, despite measuring uncertainty thought mathematical models, eventually drew attention to the psychological side of economic agents, leaving behind the behavior and the functioning of institutions. Economic agents under uncertainty scenarios break with the traditional postulates of economic theory. Due to this fact described above it was possible to observe the importance of human behavior and the institutions in the economy, because although its study privileges the question of mathematical models reality is much more complex because it involves other factors such as institutionalism. How a behavioral economics can contribute and assist policy makers in times of crises und uncertainty?
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References
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BAUSOR, R. “The rational-expectations hypothesis and the epistemics of time”. Cambridge Journal of Economics. V.6.n.3,1984.
DAVIDSON, P. Financial Markets, Money & the real World. Northampton. Edward Elgar.2002.
DEQUECH, D. (2011), Uncertainty: typology and refinements of existing concepts, Journal of Economics Issues, 45(3):621-640
DEQUECH,, D. (1999), Expectations and confidence under uncertainty, Journal of Post Keynesian Economics, 21(3): 415-30.
DAVIDSON, P. Money and the Real World. New York. The Macmillan Press Ltda,1978
DOSI, G.,EGIDI, M. (1991), ‘ Substantive and procedural uncertanty- an explanation of economic behaviour in changing enviromments’, Journal of Evolucionary Economics,1(2): 145-168.
EDWARDS, W. Behavioral decision theory. Annual Review of Psychology 12, 473-498, 1954.
ELLSBERG. Risk ambiguity and the Savage axioms.The Quartely Journal of Economics, 75(4): 643-669. Oxford, 1961.
FEHR E. and A. FALLK (2002), Psychological foundations of incentives. 2001
Schumpeter Lecture, European Economic Review 46, 687-724.
HEINER,R. Imperfect decisions, Routinized bahaviour and Intertial change. In: Dosi, Freeman, Nelson, Soete, Silverberg,1988
HICKS, J. Economic perspectives. Oxford: Clarendon Press, 1977.
HOLD, R., PRESSMAN, S. A New Guide to Post Keynesian Economics. Londres: Ed.
Jonathan Michie.2005
MUTH, John. Rational expectations and the theory of price movements. Econometrica, New York, v. 29, n. 3, p. 315-335, jan. 2012.
NEUMANN, J., MORGENSTERN, O. Theory of Games and Economic Behavior, Princeton University Press, Princeton, 1953.
KAHNEMAN, D., TVERSKY, A. Prospect Theory: An analysis of decision under risk, Econometrica 47, p.263-291, 1979.
KAHNEMAN, D., TVERSKY (1972), “Subjective probability: A judgment of representativeness”, Cognitive Psychology 3, 430-454.
KAHNEMAN, D., TVERSKY (1973), “On the psychology of prediction”, PsychologicalReview 80, 237-251.
KAHNEMAN, D., J. KNESTCH, and R. THALER (1986), “Fairness and the assumptions of economics”, Journal of Business 59, S285-S300
KEYNES, J. Teoria geral do emprego do Juro e da Moeda. São Paulo:Ed.Atlas,1982
KNIGHT, F.H. Risco, Incerteza, Lucro. Ed. Expressão e Cultura, Rio de Janeiro, 1972
LUCAS,R., SARGENT, T. Rational expectations and Econometric Practises, Minneapolis: University of Minnesota Press, 1981.
SAVAGE, L. The Foundations of Statistics. 2 ed. New York: Wiley, 1954.
SANDRONI, P. Dicionário de Economia do Século XXI. Ed. Best Seller, São Paulo, 2007.
SHACKE,G.L.S.Expectations in economics. Cambridge: Cambridge University Press,1952.
SHACKE,G.L.S. Decison, order and time in economic affairs. Cambridge:CambridgeUniv. Press: 1961
SHACKE,G.L.S. Expectations, enterprise and profit.London:Allen and Unwin,1970.
SHACKE,G.L.S. Time in Economics. Amsterdam:North Holland, 1958
SHILLER, R. ACKERLOF, G. O How Human Psychology Drives the Economomy, and Why it Matters for Global Capitalism. Princeton Press. New Jersey, 2009.
SHILLER, R., 2010. Irrational Exuberance. Princeton Press. New Jersey, 2010.
SIMON, H. (1976), ‘ From substantive to procedural rationality,’in Latsis, S. (ed.)(1976), Method and Apriaisal in Economics, Cambridge University Press.
SNOWDON, B; VANE, W. R. Modern macroeconomics. Cheltenham UK
Northampton, MA/ USA: Edward Elgar, 2005. 807p.
THE ROYAL SWEDISCH ACADEMY OF SCIENCES. Foundations of Behavioral and Experimental Economics: Daniel Kahneman and Vernon Smith. , Stockholm, p. 1-25, dez. 2012.
THE ROYAL SWEDISCH ACADEMY OF SCIENCES. Market with Asymmetric Information: George Ackerlof, Michael Spence, Joseph Stiglitz. , Stockholm, p. 1-20, out. 2001.
TVERKY, A. D. KANEHMANN (1971), “Belief in the law of small numbers”, Psychological Bulletin 76, 105-110.
TVERKY, A. D. KANEHMANN (1973), “Availability: A heursistic for judging frequency and probability”, Cognitive Psychology 5, 207-232.
TVERKY, A. D. KANEHMANN (1974), “Judgment under uncertainty: Heuristics and biases”, Science 185, 1124-1131.
TVERKY, A. D. KANEHMANN (1982), “Judgment of and by representativeness”,in Kahneman, D., P. Slovic, and A. Tversky (eds.). Judgment Under Uncertainty: Heuristics and Biases, Cambridge University Press, Cambridge.
Published
2020-11-11
How to Cite
Perez da Silva, E., & Roncaglia de Carvalho, A. (2020). INCERTEZA, EXPECTATIVAS E CONFIANÇA. A Economia Em Revista - AERE, 27(3), 1-15. Retrieved from https://periodicos.uem.br/ojs/index.php/EconRev/article/view/54755
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