JOB MARKET LOSSES IN BRAZIL: AN ANALYSIS IN THE CONTEXT OF THE COVID-19 PANDEMIC
Keywords:
Keywords: Labor market. Unemployment. Inactivity. Pandemic. COVID-19.
Abstract
This study identifies the groups of individuals, initially employed, who exhibited the highest probabilities of transitioning to unemployment and inactivity during the COVID-19 pandemic in Brazil and examines the factors contributing to the differences in exiting employment according to gender, race, age, and education level. For this purpose, microdata from the 2020 National Household Sample Survey (PNAD COVID-19) and the multinomial logit model were used. To decompose the differences in employment exit, the Oaxaca-Blinder method was applied. The results showed that women, non-whites, youth, and those with lower education levels had higher probabilities of transitioning to unemployment and inactivity. The differences in employment exit between groups were mostly explained by the unexplained component, except for the gap by education. Regarding the explained component, groups with higher education levels tended to show an advantage in this component, as was the case for women, whites, and those with higher education levels.
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References
REFERÊNCIAS
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FAIRLIE, R. W.; COUCH, K.; XU, H. The impacts of covid-19 on minority unemployment: first evidence from April 2020 CPS microdata. National Bureau of Economic Research (NBER), 2020. (Working Paper, n. 27246).
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KEMP, D.; DAVIDSON, J. Employability trajectories among new claimants of Incapacity Benefit. Policy studies, 31(2), 203-221, 2010.
KHAMIS, M.; PRINZ, D.NEWHOUSE, D.; PALACIOS-LOPEZ, A.; PAPE, U.; WEBER, M. The Early Labor Market Impacts of COVID-19 in Developing Countries: Evidence from High-Frequency Phone Surveys. World Bank, 2020. (Working paper, n. 31).
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MATTEI, L.; HEINEN, V. L. Impactos da Crise da Covid-19 no mercado de trabalho brasileiro. Revista de Economia Política, 40(4), 647-668, 2020.
MAURIZIO, R.; BERTRANOU, F. The labor market in Latin America at the time of the COVID-19 pandemic: impacts, responses and perspectives. Gaceta Médica de Caracas, 128(2), 156-171, 2020.
MONTENOVO, L.; JIANG, X.; ROJAS, F. L.; SCHMUTTE, I. M.; SIMON, K. I.; WEINBERG, B. A.; WING, C.. Determinants of disparities in COVID-19 job losses. National Bureau of Economic Research (NBER), 2020. (Working Paper, n. 27132).
NORTON, E. C.; WANG, H., AI, C. Computing interaction effects and standard errors in logit and probit models. The Stata Journal, 4(2), 154–167, 2004.
OAXACA, R. Male-female wage differentials in urban labor market. International Economic Review, 14(23), 693-709, 1973.
POULIAKAS, K.; BRANKA, J. EU Jobs at Highest Risk of COVID-19 Social Distancing: Will the Pandemic Exacerbate Labour Market Divide? Institute of Labor Economics. Bonn, 2020. (Discussion Papers, n. 13281).
REICHELT, M.; MAKOVI, K.; SARGSYAN, A. The impact of COVID-19 on gender inequality in the labor market and gender-role attitudes. European Societies, 23(1), 228-245, 2021.
WROBLEVSKI, B.; CUNHA, M. S. Determinantes das transições no mercado de trabalho brasileiro, crise econômica e desigualdade racial: uma análise para o período 2012-2019. In: XLVII Encontro Nacional de Economia (ANPEC), São Paulo, 2020.
ADAMS-PRASSL, A.; BONEVA, T.; GOLIN, M.; RAUH, C. Work That Can Be Done from Home: Evidence on Variation within and across Occupations and Industries. Institute of Labor Economics (IZA). Bonn, 2020. (Discussion Papers, n. 13374).
ALON, T. M.; DOEPKE, M.; OLMSTEAD-RUMSEY, J.; TERTILT, M. The impact of Covid-19 on gender equality. National Bureau of Economic Research (NBER), 2020. (Working Paper, n. 26947).
AVDIU, B.; NAYYAR, G.When Face-to-Face Interactions Become an Occupational Hazard: Jobs in the Time of COVID-19. World Bank, 2020. (Working Paper, n. 9240)
BARBOSA, A. L.; NE. H.; COSTA, J. S; HECKSHER, M. D. Mercado de trabalho e pandemia da covid-19: Ampliação de desigualdades já existentes? Boletim Mercado de Trabalho. Instituto de Pesquisa Econômica Aplicada (IPEA), 2020. (Nota Técnica, n. 69).
BLINDER, A. S. Wage discrimination: reduced form and structural estimates. The Journal of Human Resources, 8(4), 436–455, 1973.
BRIDI, M. A. A pandemia Covid-19: crise e deterioração do mercado de trabalho no Brasil. Estudos avançados, 34(100), 141-165, 2020.
CORSEUIL, C. H.; FRANCA, M.; PADILHA, G.; RAMOS, L.; RUSSO, F. Comportamento do mercado de trabalho brasileiro em duas recessões: análise do período 2015-2017 e da pandemia de Covid-19. Instituto de Pesquisa Econômica Aplicada (IPEA), 2021. (Nota técnica, n. 92).
SILVA, C.; CUNHA, M. S., 2020. Desempenho e fatores determinantes da oferta de trabalho de casais no brasil. Revista de Economia e Agronegócio, 18(1), 1-21, 2020.
FAIRLIE, R. W. The absence of the African-American owned business: an analysis of the dynamics of self-employment. Journal of Labor Economics, 17(1), 80–108, 1999.
FAIRLIE, R. W. An extension of the Blinder-Oaxaca decomposition technique to logit and probit models. Journal of Economic and Social Measurement, 30(4), 305–316, 2005.
FAIRLIE, R. W.; COUCH, K.; XU, H. The impacts of covid-19 on minority unemployment: first evidence from April 2020 CPS microdata. National Bureau of Economic Research (NBER), 2020. (Working Paper, n. 27246).
FANA, M.; TOLAN, S.; TORREJÓN, S.; URZI BRANCATI, C.; FERNÁNDEZ-MACÍAS, E. The COVID confinement measures and EU labour markets. Publications Office of the European Union, Luxemburgo, 2020.
FORD, E.; CLARK, C.; MCMANUS, S.; HARRIS, J.; JENKINS, R.; BEBBINGTON, P.; BRUGHA, T.; MELTZER, H., STANSFELD, S. A. Common mental disorders, unemployment and welfare benefits in England. Public Health, 124(12), 675–681, 2010.
GREENE, W. H. Econometric analysis. Seventh ed. Prentice Hall, New Jersey, 201-215, 2012.
GUTIÉRREZ, D.; MARTIN, G.; ÑOPO, H. The coronavirus pandemic and its challenges to women’s work in Latin America. Grupo de Análisis para el Desarrollo (GRADE, 2020. ( Documentos de Investigación, n. 111).
INSTITUTO BRASILEIRO DE GEOGRAFIA E ESTATÍSTICA (IBGE), 2020. PNAD COVID19 – Plano amostral e ponderação. Disponível em:
INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND (IMF). World Economic Outlook, April 2020: The Great Lockdown, 2020.
KEMP, D.; DAVIDSON, J. Employability trajectories among new claimants of Incapacity Benefit. Policy studies, 31(2), 203-221, 2010.
KHAMIS, M.; PRINZ, D.NEWHOUSE, D.; PALACIOS-LOPEZ, A.; PAPE, U.; WEBER, M. The Early Labor Market Impacts of COVID-19 in Developing Countries: Evidence from High-Frequency Phone Surveys. World Bank, 2020. (Working paper, n. 31).
KOMATSUZAKI, T.; PIENKNAGURA S.; PIZZINELLI, C.; ROLDÓS, J.; TOSCANI, F. Latin American Labor Markets during COVID-19. In: Fundo Monetário Internacional (FMI). Pandemic persistence clouds the recovery. Washington, DC: Regional Economic Outlook, 2020.
MATTEI, L.; HEINEN, V. L. Impactos da Crise da Covid-19 no mercado de trabalho brasileiro. Revista de Economia Política, 40(4), 647-668, 2020.
MAURIZIO, R.; BERTRANOU, F. The labor market in Latin America at the time of the COVID-19 pandemic: impacts, responses and perspectives. Gaceta Médica de Caracas, 128(2), 156-171, 2020.
MONTENOVO, L.; JIANG, X.; ROJAS, F. L.; SCHMUTTE, I. M.; SIMON, K. I.; WEINBERG, B. A.; WING, C.. Determinants of disparities in COVID-19 job losses. National Bureau of Economic Research (NBER), 2020. (Working Paper, n. 27132).
NORTON, E. C.; WANG, H., AI, C. Computing interaction effects and standard errors in logit and probit models. The Stata Journal, 4(2), 154–167, 2004.
OAXACA, R. Male-female wage differentials in urban labor market. International Economic Review, 14(23), 693-709, 1973.
POULIAKAS, K.; BRANKA, J. EU Jobs at Highest Risk of COVID-19 Social Distancing: Will the Pandemic Exacerbate Labour Market Divide? Institute of Labor Economics. Bonn, 2020. (Discussion Papers, n. 13281).
REICHELT, M.; MAKOVI, K.; SARGSYAN, A. The impact of COVID-19 on gender inequality in the labor market and gender-role attitudes. European Societies, 23(1), 228-245, 2021.
WROBLEVSKI, B.; CUNHA, M. S. Determinantes das transições no mercado de trabalho brasileiro, crise econômica e desigualdade racial: uma análise para o período 2012-2019. In: XLVII Encontro Nacional de Economia (ANPEC), São Paulo, 2020.
Published
2025-05-23
How to Cite
Wroblevski, B., Winder Catelan, D., Winder Catelan, D., Winder Catelan, D., & Barreiro de Souza, K. (2025). JOB MARKET LOSSES IN BRAZIL: AN ANALYSIS IN THE CONTEXT OF THE COVID-19 PANDEMIC. A Economia Em Revista - AERE, 32(1), 18. https://doi.org/10.4025/econrev.v32i2.74621
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