Qual a Heterogeneidade do Repasse Cambial de Longo Prazo nos Preços Setoriais do Varejo Brasileiro? Evidências Para o Período 2005-2016
Abstract
The article intends to analyze the relation between exchange and prices of the Brazilian retail sectors between 2005 and 2016. The work starts from the theoretical foundation that the magnitude of imperfect exchange rate transfer to the domestic price level depends on sectoral characteristics such as the market power on the part of the firms, the slope of the sectoral demand curve, mark up adjustment by the bidders, as well as the characteristics of vertical integration and strategic behavior within the productive chains of each sector. The model proposed by Campa and Goldberg (2005) was used to quantify the degree of exchange rate pass-through to the price level, and the estimation was made using the error correction vector (VEC). The results corroborate the evidence that the exchange rate pass-through is imperfect to the level of domestic prices and that it varies substantially between sectors, a fact that suggests different dynamics of price adjustment among the retail branches, due to exchange shocks.
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References
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AMITRANO, A.; DE GRAUWE, P.; TULLIO, G. Why has inflation remained so low after the large exchange rate depreciations of 1992?. JCMS: Journal of Common Market Studies, v. 35, n. 3, p. 329-346, 1997.
AUER, R. A.; SCHOENLE, R. S. Market structure and exchange rate pass-through. Journal of International Economics, v. 98, p. 60-77, 2016.
BANERJEE, A. et al. Co-integration, error correction, and the econometric analysis of non-stationary data. OUP Catalogue, 1993.
BELAISCH, A. Exchange rate pass-through in Brazil. International Monetary Fund, 2003.
BONNET, C., et al. Empirical evidence on the role of nonlinear wholesale pricing and vertical restraints on cost pass-through. Review of Economics and Statistics, v. 95, n. 2, p. 500-515, 2013.
BETTENDORF, L.; VERBOVEN, F. Incomplete transmission of coffee bean prices: evidence from the Netherlands. European Review of Agricultural Economics, v. 27, n. 1, p. 1-16, 2000.
CAMPA, J. M.; GOLDBERG, L. S. Exchange rate pass-through into import prices. Review of Economics and Statistics, v. 87, n. 4, p. 679-690, 2005.
CAMPA, J. M.; GOLDBERG, L. S. Distribution margins, imported inputs, and the sensitivity of the CPI to exchange rates. NBER working paper, n. 12.121, 2006.
CAMPBELL, J. Y.; PERRON, P. Pitfalls and opportunities: what macroeconomists should know about unit roots. In: NBER Macroeconomics Annual 1991, Volume 6. MIT press, 1991.
CARNEIRO, D.; MONTEIRO, A.; WU, T. Mecanismos não lineares de repasse cambial para o IPCA, PUC-RJ. Working Paper, 2002.
COUTO, S. V. V.; FRAGA, G. J. O pass-through da taxa de câmbio para índices de preços: análise empírica para o Brasil. Revista de Economia Contemporânea, v. 18, n. 3, p. 333-356, 2014.
DORNBUSCH, R. Exchange rates and prices. 1985.
ENDERS, W. Applied econometric time series. John Wiley & Sons, 2008.
FEENSTRA, R. C. Symmetric pass-through of tariffs and exchange rates under imperfect competition: An empirical test. Journal of international Economics, v. 27, n. 1, p. 25-45, 1989.
GOLDBERG, P. K.; VERBOVEN, F. The evolution of price dispersion in the European car market. The Review of Economic Studies, v. 68, n. 4, p. 811-848, 2001.
HASTING, J. S. Vertical Relationships and Competition in Retail Gasoline Markets. The American Economic Review, v. 94, p. 317-328, 2004
HELLERSTEIN, R. A decomposition of the sources of incomplete cross-border transmission: the case of beer. In: Federal Reserve Bank of New York Working Paper. 2005.
HELLERSTEIN, R.; VILLAS-BOAS, S. B. Outsourcing and pass-through. Journal of International Economics, v. 81, n. 2, p. 170-183, 2010.
HOLLAUER, G.; BAHIA, L.; ISSLER, J. Modelos vetoriais de correção de erros aplicados à previsão de crescimento da produção industrial. 2006.
JOHANSEN, S.; JUSELIUS, K. Maximum likelihood estimation and inference on cointegration—with applications to the demand for money. Oxford Bulletin of Economics and statistics, v. 52, n. 2, 1990.
JOHANSEN, S. Likelihood-based inference in cointegrated vector autoregressive models. Oxford University Press on Demand, 1995.
KANNEBLEY JUNIOR, S. Exchange rate pass‑through: uma análise setorial para as exportacões brasileiras (1984‑1997). Economia Aplicada, v. 4, n. 3, 2000.
KRUGMAN, P. R. Pricing to market when the exchange rate changes. 1986.
NAKAMURA, E. Pass-through in retail and wholesale. National Bureau of Economic Research, 2008.
NAKAMURA, E.; ZEROM, D. Accounting for incomplete pass-through. The Review of Economic Studies, v. 77, n. 3, p. 1192-1230, 2010.
LOSCHIAVO, G.; IGLESIAS, C. Mecanismos de transmisión de la política monetario-cambiaria a precios. Revista de economía, v. 10, n. 1, p. 87-150, 2003.
PEREIRA, T. R., CARVALHO, A. Depreciacão cambial e seu impacto sobre os custos e preços industriais no Brasil: uma análise dos efeitos de encadeamento nos setores produtivos. Texto para Discussão, IPEA, n. 711, 2000.
SERRANO, F. Juros, câmbio e o sistema de metas de inflação no Brasil. Brazilian Journal of Political Economy, v. 30, n. 1, p. 63-72, 2010.
SCHWARZ, G. et al. Estimating the dimension of a model. The annals of statistics, v. 6, n. 2, p. 461-464, 1978.
SIMS, C. A. Macroeconomics and reality. Econometrica: Journal of the Econometric Society, p. 1-48, 1980.
SOUZA, R. G. ALVES, A. F. Relação entre câmbio e preços no Brasil: aspectos teóricos e evidências empíricas. In: Anais do XXXVIII Encontro Nacional de Economia ANPEC - Associação Nacional dos Centros de Pós graduação em Economia, 2011.
VILLAS-BOAS, S. B. Vertical relationships between manufacturers and retailers: Inference with limited data. The Review of Economic Studies, v. 74, n. 2, p. 625-652, 2007.
Published
2020-11-11
How to Cite
Lins, J. G. M. G., Juliane da Silva Ciríaco, & Cinthia Barbosa Sousa. (2020). Qual a Heterogeneidade do Repasse Cambial de Longo Prazo nos Preços Setoriais do Varejo Brasileiro? Evidências Para o Período 2005-2016. A Economia Em Revista - AERE, 27(2), 19-34. Retrieved from https://periodicos.uem.br/ojs/index.php/EconRev/article/view/54846
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