Agronegócio brasileiro em meio à turbulência provocada pela Covid-19: uma esperança para o mercado de capitais?
Résumé
This study aimed to investigate the effects of the COVID-19 crisis on the performance of the stocks of Brazilian agribusiness. Among the main activities of Brazilian agribusiness, grain production stands out worldwide. Thus, we selected the company SLC to represent this segment. And, from Thomson Reuters, we selected its peer companies: Ambev, JBS, BRF, Cosan Logística, Marfrig and São Martinho. We used the event study methodology and multivariate linear regression. The results showed that SLC performed well in the event window, while its peers experienced great volatility. The OLS regression confirmed that SLC was positively differentiated from other companies with daily trading in the period.
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Références
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Barua, S. (2020). Understanding Coronanomics: The economic implications of the coronavirus (COVID-19) pandemic. SSRN Electronic Journal. http://dx.doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.3566477
Cadillo-Benalcazar, J. J., Renner; A., & Giampietro, M. (2020). A multiscale integrated analysis of the factors characterizing the sustainability of food systems in Europe. Journal of Environmental Management, 271(1), 1 – 12. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jenvman.2020.110944
CEPEA. (2020). Centro De Estudos Avançados Em Economia Aplicada. Especial/CEPEA: COVID-19 e agroalimentos: recalibrando expectativas. https://www.cepea.esalq.usp.br/br/releases/especial-cepea-covid-19-e-agroalimentos-recalibrando-expectativas.aspx
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Embrapa (2017). Lavouras são de apenas 7,6% do Brasil, segundo NASA. https://www.embrapa.br/busca-de-noticias/-/noticia/30972444/lavouras-sao-apenas-76-do-brasil-segundo-a-nasa.
Embrapa (2020a). Embrapa Soja. https://www.embrapa.br/soja/cultivos/soja1/dados-economicos
Embrapa. (2020b). Trajetória da Agricultura Brasileira. https://www.embrapa.br/visao/trajetoria-da-agricultura-brasileira
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G1 (2020a). Preços do petróleo fecham em forte alta após três dias de queda. https://g1.globo.com/economia/noticia/2020/03/19/precos-do-petroleo-operam-em-alta-apos-tres-dias-de-queda.ghtml
G1 (2020b). BRF e Marfrig desistem de fusão. https://g1.globo.com/economia/noticia/2019/07/11/brf-e-marfrig-desistem-de-fusao.ghtml
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Hall, J., Matos, S., Silvestre, B., & Martin, M. (2011). Managing technological and social uncertainties of innovation: the evolution of Brazilian energy and agriculture. Technological Forecasting and Social Change, 78(7), 1147-1157. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.techfore.2011.02.005
IBGE (2020). Com impacto do coronavírus, PIB encolhe 1,5% no primeiro trimestre. https://agenciadenoticias.ibge.gov.br/agencia-noticias/2012-agencia-de-noticias/noticias/27838-com-impacto-do-coronavirus-pib-encolhe-1-5-no-primeiro-trimestre
Ioris, A. A. (2015). Cracking the nut of agribusiness and global food insecurity: In search of a critical agenda of research. Geoforum, 63(1), 1-4. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.geoforum.2015.05.004
Iqbal, N., et al. (2020). Nexus between COVID-19, temperature and exchange rate in Wuhan City: New findings from Partial and Multiple Wavelet Coherence. Science of The Total Environment, 138916. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.scitotenv.2020.138916
Istoé (2020). Importação chinesa de carne cresce 69,6% no 1º bimestre de 2020. https://istoe.com.br/importacao-chinesa-de-carne-cresce-696-no-1o-bimestre-de-2020/
Janvry, A., Sadoulet, E. (2020). Using agriculture for development: Supply-and demand-side approaches. World Development, 133(1), 105003. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.worlddev.2020.105003
Laing, T. (2020). The economic impact of the Coronavirus 2019 (Covid-2019): Implications for the mining industry. The Extractive Industries and Society, 7(2), 580 – 582. https://doi.org/10.1016 / j.exis.2020.04.003
Ministério da Economia. (2020). Nota Informativa – Impactos Econômicos da COVID-19. https://www.gov.br/economia/pt-br/centrais-de-conteudo/publicacoes/notas-informativas/2020/nota-impactos-economicos-da-covid-19.pdf/view
Ministério da Saúde. (2020). Brasil confirma primeiro caso da doença. https://www.saude.gov.br/noticias/agencia-saude/46435-brasil-confirma-primeiro-caso-de-novo-coronavirus
Moreira, R. V., Kureski, R., & Veiga, C. P. (2016). Assessment of the economic structure of Brazilian agribusiness. The Scientific World Journal, 1(1), 1 – 10. https://doi.org/10.1155/2016/7517806
Mueller, B., Mueller, C. (2016). The political economy of the Brazilian model of agricultural development: Institutions versus sectoral policy. The quarterly review of economics and finance, 62(1), 12-20. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.qref.2016.07.012
Nicola, M., et al. (2020). The Socio-Economic Implications of the Coronavirus and COVID-19 Pandemic: A Review. International Journal of Surgery, 78(1), 185 – 193. https://doi.org/ 10.1016 / j.ijsu.2020.04.018
Ozili, P. K., & Arun, T. (2020). Spillover of COVID-19: impact on the Global Economy. SSRN Eletronic Journal. http://dx.doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.3562570
Pereira, P. A. A., et al. (2012). The development of Brazilian agriculture: future technological challenges and opportunities. Agriculture & Food Security, 1(1), 4. https://doi.org/10.1186/2048-7010-1-4
Picolli, P., Chaudhury, M., & Souza, A. (2017). How do stocks react to extreme market events? Evidence from Brazil. Research in Inernational Business and Finance, 42(1), 275 – 284. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ribaf.2017.07.166
PPI (2020). Programa de Parcerias de Investimentos. Projetos: Rumo Malha Paulista SA. https://www.ppi.gov.br/rumo-malha-paulista-sa
Qiu, Y., Chen, X. & Shi, W. (2020). Impacts of social and economic factors on the transmission of coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) in China. Journal of Population Economics, 1. https://doi.org/10.1101/2020.03.13.20035238
Senado. (2020). Em Discussão: Pecuária com maior produtividade sobraria área de planta. https://www.senado.gov.br/noticias/Jornal/emdiscussao/codigo-florestal/senado-oferece-um-projeto-equilibrado-para-o-novo-codigo-florestal-brasileiro/pecuaria-com-maior-maior-produtividade-dobraria-area-plantada.aspx
Scoones, I., et al. (2016). A new politics of development cooperation? Chinese and Brazilian engagements in African agriculture. World Development, 81(1), 1-12. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.worlddev.2015.11.020
Sharif, A., Aloui, C., & Yarovaya, L. (2020). COVID-19 pandemic, oil prices, stock market, geopolitical risk and policy uncertainty nexus in the US economy: Fresh evidence from the wavelet-based approach. International Review of Financial Analysis, 70(1), 101496. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.irfa.2020.101496
Sistema Ocepar (2020). Mercado internacional: Exportações do agro superam os U$$ 10 bilhões em abril. http://www.paranacooperativo.coop.br/ppc/index.php/sistema-ocepar/comunicacao/2011-12-07-11-06-29/ultimas-noticias/127891-mercado-internacional-exportacoes-do-agro-superam-os-us-10-bilhoes-em-abril.
Sui, L., & Sun, L. (2016). Spillover effects between exchange rates and stock prices: Evidence from BRICS around the recent global financial crisis. Research in Internatonal Business and Finance, 36(1), 459 -471. http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.ribaf.2015.10.0110275-5319
Tiegen, K. H., & Keren, G. (2003). Surprises: low probalities or high contrasts? Cognition, 87(1), 55 – 71. https://doi.org/10.1016/s0010-0277(02)00201-9
Vieira Filho, J. E. R. (2019). Diagnóstico e desafios da agricultura brasileira. Rio de Janeiro: IPEA. https://dea.ufc.br/wp-content/uploads/2019/11/diagnostico-e-desafios-da-agricultura-brasileira.pdf
WHO (2020). World Health Organization. There is a curret outbreak of Coronavirus (Covid-19) disease. https://www.who.int/health-topics/coronavirus/coronavirus#tab=tab_1
Wang, Y., et al. (2020) Marketing innovations during a global crisis: A study of China firms’ response to COVID-19. Journal of Business Research, 116(1), 214 – 220. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jbusres.2020.05.029
Ahani, A., & Nilashi, M. (2020). Coronavirus outbreak and its impacts on global economy: The role of social network sites. Journal of Soft Computing and Decision Support Systems, 7(2), 19-22. https://www.jscdss.com/index.php/files/article/view/222
Amanor, K. S., & Chichava, S. (2016). South–South Cooperation, Agribusiness, and African Agricultural Development: Brazil and China in Ghana and Mozambique. World Development, 81, 13–23. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.worlddev.2015.11.021.
Ambev. (2020). Juntos à distância. https://www.ambev.com.br/juntosadistancia
Andrade, D. (2016). ‘Export or die’: the rise of Brazil as an agribusiness powerhouse. Third World Thematics: A TWQ Journal, 1(5), 653-672. https://doi.org/10.1080/23802014.2016.1353889
Barua, S. (2020). Understanding Coronanomics: The economic implications of the coronavirus (COVID-19) pandemic. SSRN Electronic Journal. http://dx.doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.3566477
Cadillo-Benalcazar, J. J., Renner; A., & Giampietro, M. (2020). A multiscale integrated analysis of the factors characterizing the sustainability of food systems in Europe. Journal of Environmental Management, 271(1), 1 – 12. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jenvman.2020.110944
CEPEA. (2020). Centro De Estudos Avançados Em Economia Aplicada. Especial/CEPEA: COVID-19 e agroalimentos: recalibrando expectativas. https://www.cepea.esalq.usp.br/br/releases/especial-cepea-covid-19-e-agroalimentos-recalibrando-expectativas.aspx
Chakraborty, I., & Maity, P. (2020). COVID-19 outbreak: Migration, effects on society, global environment and prevention. Science of The Total Environment, 728(1), 138882. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.scitotenv.2020.138882
Embrapa (2017). Lavouras são de apenas 7,6% do Brasil, segundo NASA. https://www.embrapa.br/busca-de-noticias/-/noticia/30972444/lavouras-sao-apenas-76-do-brasil-segundo-a-nasa.
Embrapa (2020a). Embrapa Soja. https://www.embrapa.br/soja/cultivos/soja1/dados-economicos
Embrapa. (2020b). Trajetória da Agricultura Brasileira. https://www.embrapa.br/visao/trajetoria-da-agricultura-brasileira
Exame (2020). 6 números mostram o dramático impacto do coronavírus na economia. https://exame.com/economia/6-numeros-mostram-o-dramatico-impacto-do-coronavirus-na-economia/
G1 (2020a). Preços do petróleo fecham em forte alta após três dias de queda. https://g1.globo.com/economia/noticia/2020/03/19/precos-do-petroleo-operam-em-alta-apos-tres-dias-de-queda.ghtml
G1 (2020b). BRF e Marfrig desistem de fusão. https://g1.globo.com/economia/noticia/2019/07/11/brf-e-marfrig-desistem-de-fusao.ghtml
G1 Economia (2020c). Com pandemia do coronavírus, Brasil fecha 1,1 milhão de vagas de trabalho entre março e abril. https://g1.globo.com/economia/noticia/2020/05/27/coronavirus-brasil-fecha-860-mil-empregos-formais-no-pior-mes-de-abril-em-29-anos.ghtml
Governo do Brasil. (2020). IBGE prevê novo recorde na safra de 2020. https://www.gov.br/pt-br/noticias/agricultura-e-pecuaria/2020/05/ibge-preve-safra-novo-recorde-na-safra-em-2020#:~:text=A%20safra%20nacional%20de%20gr%C3%A3os,Geografia%20e%20Estat%C3%ADstica%20(IBGE).
Globo Rural (2019). Será que o Brasil vai entrar nos trilhos? https://revistagloborural.globo.com/Colunas/caminhos-da-safra/noticia/2019/05/sera-que-o-brasil-vai-entrar-nos-trilhos.html
Hall, J., Matos, S., Silvestre, B., & Martin, M. (2011). Managing technological and social uncertainties of innovation: the evolution of Brazilian energy and agriculture. Technological Forecasting and Social Change, 78(7), 1147-1157. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.techfore.2011.02.005
IBGE (2020). Com impacto do coronavírus, PIB encolhe 1,5% no primeiro trimestre. https://agenciadenoticias.ibge.gov.br/agencia-noticias/2012-agencia-de-noticias/noticias/27838-com-impacto-do-coronavirus-pib-encolhe-1-5-no-primeiro-trimestre
Ioris, A. A. (2015). Cracking the nut of agribusiness and global food insecurity: In search of a critical agenda of research. Geoforum, 63(1), 1-4. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.geoforum.2015.05.004
Iqbal, N., et al. (2020). Nexus between COVID-19, temperature and exchange rate in Wuhan City: New findings from Partial and Multiple Wavelet Coherence. Science of The Total Environment, 138916. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.scitotenv.2020.138916
Istoé (2020). Importação chinesa de carne cresce 69,6% no 1º bimestre de 2020. https://istoe.com.br/importacao-chinesa-de-carne-cresce-696-no-1o-bimestre-de-2020/
Janvry, A., Sadoulet, E. (2020). Using agriculture for development: Supply-and demand-side approaches. World Development, 133(1), 105003. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.worlddev.2020.105003
Laing, T. (2020). The economic impact of the Coronavirus 2019 (Covid-2019): Implications for the mining industry. The Extractive Industries and Society, 7(2), 580 – 582. https://doi.org/10.1016 / j.exis.2020.04.003
Ministério da Economia. (2020). Nota Informativa – Impactos Econômicos da COVID-19. https://www.gov.br/economia/pt-br/centrais-de-conteudo/publicacoes/notas-informativas/2020/nota-impactos-economicos-da-covid-19.pdf/view
Ministério da Saúde. (2020). Brasil confirma primeiro caso da doença. https://www.saude.gov.br/noticias/agencia-saude/46435-brasil-confirma-primeiro-caso-de-novo-coronavirus
Moreira, R. V., Kureski, R., & Veiga, C. P. (2016). Assessment of the economic structure of Brazilian agribusiness. The Scientific World Journal, 1(1), 1 – 10. https://doi.org/10.1155/2016/7517806
Mueller, B., Mueller, C. (2016). The political economy of the Brazilian model of agricultural development: Institutions versus sectoral policy. The quarterly review of economics and finance, 62(1), 12-20. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.qref.2016.07.012
Nicola, M., et al. (2020). The Socio-Economic Implications of the Coronavirus and COVID-19 Pandemic: A Review. International Journal of Surgery, 78(1), 185 – 193. https://doi.org/ 10.1016 / j.ijsu.2020.04.018
Ozili, P. K., & Arun, T. (2020). Spillover of COVID-19: impact on the Global Economy. SSRN Eletronic Journal. http://dx.doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.3562570
Pereira, P. A. A., et al. (2012). The development of Brazilian agriculture: future technological challenges and opportunities. Agriculture & Food Security, 1(1), 4. https://doi.org/10.1186/2048-7010-1-4
Picolli, P., Chaudhury, M., & Souza, A. (2017). How do stocks react to extreme market events? Evidence from Brazil. Research in Inernational Business and Finance, 42(1), 275 – 284. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ribaf.2017.07.166
PPI (2020). Programa de Parcerias de Investimentos. Projetos: Rumo Malha Paulista SA. https://www.ppi.gov.br/rumo-malha-paulista-sa
Qiu, Y., Chen, X. & Shi, W. (2020). Impacts of social and economic factors on the transmission of coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) in China. Journal of Population Economics, 1. https://doi.org/10.1101/2020.03.13.20035238
Senado. (2020). Em Discussão: Pecuária com maior produtividade sobraria área de planta. https://www.senado.gov.br/noticias/Jornal/emdiscussao/codigo-florestal/senado-oferece-um-projeto-equilibrado-para-o-novo-codigo-florestal-brasileiro/pecuaria-com-maior-maior-produtividade-dobraria-area-plantada.aspx
Scoones, I., et al. (2016). A new politics of development cooperation? Chinese and Brazilian engagements in African agriculture. World Development, 81(1), 1-12. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.worlddev.2015.11.020
Sharif, A., Aloui, C., & Yarovaya, L. (2020). COVID-19 pandemic, oil prices, stock market, geopolitical risk and policy uncertainty nexus in the US economy: Fresh evidence from the wavelet-based approach. International Review of Financial Analysis, 70(1), 101496. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.irfa.2020.101496
Sistema Ocepar (2020). Mercado internacional: Exportações do agro superam os U$$ 10 bilhões em abril. http://www.paranacooperativo.coop.br/ppc/index.php/sistema-ocepar/comunicacao/2011-12-07-11-06-29/ultimas-noticias/127891-mercado-internacional-exportacoes-do-agro-superam-os-us-10-bilhoes-em-abril.
Sui, L., & Sun, L. (2016). Spillover effects between exchange rates and stock prices: Evidence from BRICS around the recent global financial crisis. Research in Internatonal Business and Finance, 36(1), 459 -471. http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.ribaf.2015.10.0110275-5319
Tiegen, K. H., & Keren, G. (2003). Surprises: low probalities or high contrasts? Cognition, 87(1), 55 – 71. https://doi.org/10.1016/s0010-0277(02)00201-9
Vieira Filho, J. E. R. (2019). Diagnóstico e desafios da agricultura brasileira. Rio de Janeiro: IPEA. https://dea.ufc.br/wp-content/uploads/2019/11/diagnostico-e-desafios-da-agricultura-brasileira.pdf
WHO (2020). World Health Organization. There is a curret outbreak of Coronavirus (Covid-19) disease. https://www.who.int/health-topics/coronavirus/coronavirus#tab=tab_1
Wang, Y., et al. (2020) Marketing innovations during a global crisis: A study of China firms’ response to COVID-19. Journal of Business Research, 116(1), 214 – 220. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jbusres.2020.05.029
Publiée
2022-10-11
Comment citer
Bortoli, C., Brandt, E. T., Moura , I. V., & Barros, C. M. E. (2022). Agronegócio brasileiro em meio à turbulência provocada pela Covid-19: uma esperança para o mercado de capitais?. Enfoque: Reflexão Contábil, 41(3), 157-175. https://doi.org/10.4025/enfoque.v41i3.56633
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