Ciclos políticos e desempenho dos bancos: uma revisão sistemática da literatura
Resumen
Objetivo: Este estudo mapeia a produção científica dos últimos anos (2000-2022) relacionada ao tema “Ciclos Políticos e Desempenho dos Bancos”.
Relevância: Sua relevância fundamenta-se na importância dos bancos como agentes econômicos, na contribuição dessas instituições para a melhoria da eficiência do mercado financeiro e no pressuposto de que fatores políticos podem influenciar seu desempenho. Destaca-se, ainda, a crescente expansão do tema na literatura.
Método: A metodologia utilizada baseou-se em uma abordagem exploratória e descritiva, investigando a literatura acerca das inter-relações entre os termos “ciclos políticos” e “desempenho dos bancos” por meio da análise bibliométrica.
Resultados: Os resultados revelam pesquisas de significativa importância em âmbito global e local, destacando os principais temas de pesquisa da atualidade associada à temática, bem como autores e países mais proeminentes. Destacam-se especialmente aqueles estudos que possuem forte relevância e impacto decisivo para a literatura científica sobre a temática.
Contribuições: Como contribuições, esta pesquisa apresenta os principais clusters de conhecimento, temas emergentes e oportunidades para pesquisas sobre a temática analisada.
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Bialkowski, J., Gottschalk, K., & Wisniewski, T. (2008). Stock market volatility around national elections. Journal Of Banking & Finance, 32(9), 1941–1953. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jbankfin.2007.12.021
BNDES. (2020). Relatório Anual 2020. https://www.bndes.gov.br/SiteBNDES/bndes/bndes_pt/Hotsites/Relatorio_Anual_2020/src/index.html
Boubakri, N., Mirzaei, A., & Samet, A. (2017). National culture and bank performance: Evidence from the recent financial crisis. Journal Of Financial Stability, 29, 36–56. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jfs.2017.02.003
Brey, N., Camilo, S., Marcon, B., & Alberton, A. (2011). A Estrutura de Propriedade das Corporações: Conexões Políticas sob a Perspectiva da Dependência de Recursos. Revista Ibero-Americana de Estratégia, 10. https://doi.org/10.5585/riae.v10i3.1791
Castro, V., & Martins, R. (2021). What drives the duration of credit booms? International Journal of Finance and Economics, 26(1), 1531–1549. https://doi.org/10.1002/ijfe.1862
Cole, S. (2009). Fixing Market Failures or Fixing Elections? Agricultural Credit in India. American economic journal-applied economics, 1(1), 219–250. https://doi.org/10.1257/app.1.1.219
Cornett, M., Guo, L., Khaksari, S., & Tehranian, H. (2010). The impact of state ownership on performance differences in privately-owned versus state-owned banks: An international comparison. Journal of Financial Intermediation, 19(1), 74–94. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jfi.2008.09.005
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Dinç, I. S. (2005). Politicians and banks: Political influences on government-owned banks in emerging markets. Journal of Financial Economics, 77(2), 453–479. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jfineco.2004.06.011
Doong, S., & Doan, A. (2021). The Influence of Political Uncertainty on Commercial Banks in Emerging Market Countries. International Journal of Public Administration. https://doi.org/10.1080/01900692.2021.1941100
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Englmaier, F., & Stowasser, T. (2017). Electoral cycles in savings bank lending. Journal of the European Economic Association, 15(2), 296–354. https://doi.org/10.1093/jeea/jvw005
Fialho, T. M. M. (1999). Ciclos políticos: Uma resenha. Brazilian Journal of Political Economy, 19, 381–400. https://doi.org/10.1590/0101-31571999-1016
Frigerio, M., & Vandone, D. (2020). European development banks and the political cycle. European Journal of Political Economy. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ejpoleco.2019.101852
Gonçalves, L. G., Funchal, B., & Bezerra Filho, J. E. (2017). A influência dos ciclos políticos nos investimentos públicos em infraestrutura: Um estudo nos estados brasileiros no período de 2003 a 2014. Revista de Administração Pública, 51(4), 462–481. https://doi.org/10.1590/0034-7612156337
Goodell, J., McGee, R., & McGroarty, F. (2020). Election uncertainty, economic policy uncertainty and financial market uncertainty: A prediction market analysis. Journal Of Banking & Finance, 110. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jbankfin.2019.105684
Gorton, G., & He, P. (2008). Bank credit cycles. Review of Economic Studies, 75(4), 1181–1214. https://doi.org/10.1111/j.1467-937X.2008.00497.x
Horn, C. H., & Feil, F. (2019). Instituições financeiras de desenvolvimento regional e os desafios do Sistema Nacional de Fomento. Economia e Sociedade, 28, 227–254. https://doi.org/10.1590/1982-3533.2019v28n1art11
Hung, C., Jiang, Y., Liu, F., Tu, H., & Wang, S. (2017). Bank political connections and performance in China. Journal of Financial Stability, 32, 57–69. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jfs.2017.09.003
Jackowicz, K., Kowalewski, O., & Kozłowski, Ł. (2013). The influence of political factors on commercial banks in Central European countries. Journal of Financial Stability, 9(4), 759–777. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jfs.2012.08.001
Jasmine, R. N., Rokhim, R., & Hakim, A. R. (2020). Political connections on board of management and banking performance: Evidence from Indonesia. International Journal of Economics and Management, 14(2), 219–231.
Johnson, J. M., & Crain, W. M. (2004). Effects of term limits on fiscal performance: Evidence from democratic nations. Public Choice, 119(1–2), 73–90. https://doi.org/10.1023/b:puch.0000024183.74743.13
Khemani, S. (2004). Political cycles in a developing economy: Effect of elections in the Indian States. Journal of Development Economics, 73(1), 125–154. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jdeveco.2003.01.002
Khwaja, A. I., & Mian, A. (2005). Do Lenders Favor Politically Connected Firms? Rent Provision in an Emerging Financial Market. The Quarterly Journal of Economics, 120(4), 1371–1411. https://doi.org/10.1162/003355305775097524
Killins, R., Johnk, D., & Egly, P. (2020). The impact of financial regulation policy uncertainty on bank profits and risk. Studies in Economics and Finance, 37(4), 725–752. https://doi.org/10.1108/SEF-05-2019-0169
Klomp, J., & de Haan, J. (2013). Political budget cycles and election outcomes. Public Choice, 157(1–2), 245–267. https://doi.org/10.1007/s11127-012-9943-y
Koetter, M., & Popov, A. (2021). Political cycles in bank lending to the government. Review of Financial Studies, 34(6), 3138–3180. https://doi.org/10.1093/rfs/hhaa118
La Porta, R., Lopez‐De‐Silanes, F., & Shleifer, A. (2002). Government Ownership of Banks. Journal of Finance, 57(1), 265–301.
Lami, E., & Imami, D. (2019). Electoral Cycles of Tax Performance in Advanced Democracies. CESifo Economic Studies, 65(3), 275–295. https://doi.org/10.1093/cesifo/ifz008
Lee, J., & Kim, D. (2013). Bank performance and its determinants in Korea. Japan and the World Economy, 27, 83–94. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.japwor.2013.05.001
Levernier, W. (1992). The effect of relative economic performance on the outcome of gubernational elections. Public Choice, 74(2), 181–190. https://doi.org/10.1007/BF00140766
Marx, W., & Bornmann, L. (2016). Change of perspective: Bibliometrics from the point of view of cited references—a literature overview on approaches to the evaluation of cited references in bibliometrics. Scientometrics, 109(2), 1397–1415. https://doi.org/10.1007/s11192-016-2111-2
Micco, A., Panizza, U., & Yanez, M. (2007). Bank ownership and performance. Does politics matter? Journal of Banking & Finance, 31(1), 219–241. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jbankfin.2006.02.007
Moiseev, S. R. (2018). The independence of Central bank: Concept, methods and impact of global financial crisis. Zhournal Novoi Ekonomicheskoi Associacii, 40(4), 110–136. https://doi.org/10.31737/2221-2264-2018-40-4-5
Nordhaus, W. D. (1975). The Political Business Cycle. The Review of Economic Studies, 42(2), 169–190. https://doi.org/10.2307/2296528
Nordhaus, W. D., Alesina, A., & Schultze, C. L. (1989). Alternative Approaches to the Political Business Cycle. Brookings Papers on Economic Activity, 1989(2), 1–68. https://doi.org/10.2307/2534461
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Pantzalis, C., Strangeland, D., & Turtle, H. (2000). Political elections and the resolution of uncertainty: The international evidence. Journal of Banking & Finance, 24(10), 1575–1604. https://doi.org/10.1016/S0378-4266(99)00093-X
Pastor, L., & Veronesi, P. (2020). Political Cycles and Stock Returns. Journal of Political Economy. https://doi.org/10.1086/710532
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Rogoff, K. (1990). Equilibrium Political Budget Cycles. The American Economic Review, 80(1), 21–36.
Rudy, K. (2021). Political tax cycles: Cyclicality of the tax burden in election periods. Journal of Tax Reform, 7(2), 193–205. https://doi.org/10.15826/jtr.2021.7.2.098
Sakurai, S. N. (2009). Ciclos políticos nas funções orçamentárias dos municípios brasileiros: Uma análise para o período 1990 - 2005 via dados em painel. Estudos Econômicos (São Paulo), 39, 39–58. https://doi.org/10.1590/S0101-41612009000100002
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Sapienza, P. (2004). The effects of government ownership on bank lending. Journal of Financial Economics, 72(2), 357–384. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jfineco.2002.10.002
Shen, C., & Lin, C. (2012). Why government banks underperform: A political interference view. Journal of Financial Intermediation, 21(2), 181–202. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jfi.2011.06.003
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Alesina, A., & Stella, A. (2010). The politics of monetary policy (Vol. 3, Número C). https://www.scopus.com/inward/record.uri?eid=2-s2.0-78650229741&doi=10.1016%2fB978-0-444-53454-5.00006-2&partnerID=40&md5=197640570f2ed3f58b38237ac39afc7e
Arellano, M., & Bond, S. (1991). Some Tests of Specification for Panel Data: Monte Carlo Evidence and an Application to Employment Equations. Review of Economic Studies, 58(2), 277–297.
Bialkowski, J., Gottschalk, K., & Wisniewski, T. (2008). Stock market volatility around national elections. Journal Of Banking & Finance, 32(9), 1941–1953. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jbankfin.2007.12.021
BNDES. (2020). Relatório Anual 2020. https://www.bndes.gov.br/SiteBNDES/bndes/bndes_pt/Hotsites/Relatorio_Anual_2020/src/index.html
Boubakri, N., Mirzaei, A., & Samet, A. (2017). National culture and bank performance: Evidence from the recent financial crisis. Journal Of Financial Stability, 29, 36–56. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jfs.2017.02.003
Brey, N., Camilo, S., Marcon, B., & Alberton, A. (2011). A Estrutura de Propriedade das Corporações: Conexões Políticas sob a Perspectiva da Dependência de Recursos. Revista Ibero-Americana de Estratégia, 10. https://doi.org/10.5585/riae.v10i3.1791
Castro, V., & Martins, R. (2021). What drives the duration of credit booms? International Journal of Finance and Economics, 26(1), 1531–1549. https://doi.org/10.1002/ijfe.1862
Cole, S. (2009). Fixing Market Failures or Fixing Elections? Agricultural Credit in India. American economic journal-applied economics, 1(1), 219–250. https://doi.org/10.1257/app.1.1.219
Cornett, M., Guo, L., Khaksari, S., & Tehranian, H. (2010). The impact of state ownership on performance differences in privately-owned versus state-owned banks: An international comparison. Journal of Financial Intermediation, 19(1), 74–94. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jfi.2008.09.005
Cukierman, A., & Webb, S. B. (1995). Political influence on the central bank: International evidence. World Bank Economic Review, 9(3), 397–423. https://doi.org/10.1093/wber/9.3.397
DIEESE. (2020). Desempenho dos Bancos em 2020 (p. 22). DIEESE. https://www.dieese.org.br/desempenhodosbancos/2021/desempenhoDosBancos2021.pdf
Dinç, I. S. (2005). Politicians and banks: Political influences on government-owned banks in emerging markets. Journal of Financial Economics, 77(2), 453–479. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jfineco.2004.06.011
Doong, S., & Doan, A. (2021). The Influence of Political Uncertainty on Commercial Banks in Emerging Market Countries. International Journal of Public Administration. https://doi.org/10.1080/01900692.2021.1941100
Eichler, S., & Plaga, T. (2020). The economic record of the government and sovereign bond and stock returns around national elections. Journal of Banking & Finance, 118. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jbankfin.2020.105832
Englmaier, F., & Stowasser, T. (2017). Electoral cycles in savings bank lending. Journal of the European Economic Association, 15(2), 296–354. https://doi.org/10.1093/jeea/jvw005
Fialho, T. M. M. (1999). Ciclos políticos: Uma resenha. Brazilian Journal of Political Economy, 19, 381–400. https://doi.org/10.1590/0101-31571999-1016
Frigerio, M., & Vandone, D. (2020). European development banks and the political cycle. European Journal of Political Economy. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ejpoleco.2019.101852
Gonçalves, L. G., Funchal, B., & Bezerra Filho, J. E. (2017). A influência dos ciclos políticos nos investimentos públicos em infraestrutura: Um estudo nos estados brasileiros no período de 2003 a 2014. Revista de Administração Pública, 51(4), 462–481. https://doi.org/10.1590/0034-7612156337
Goodell, J., McGee, R., & McGroarty, F. (2020). Election uncertainty, economic policy uncertainty and financial market uncertainty: A prediction market analysis. Journal Of Banking & Finance, 110. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jbankfin.2019.105684
Gorton, G., & He, P. (2008). Bank credit cycles. Review of Economic Studies, 75(4), 1181–1214. https://doi.org/10.1111/j.1467-937X.2008.00497.x
Horn, C. H., & Feil, F. (2019). Instituições financeiras de desenvolvimento regional e os desafios do Sistema Nacional de Fomento. Economia e Sociedade, 28, 227–254. https://doi.org/10.1590/1982-3533.2019v28n1art11
Hung, C., Jiang, Y., Liu, F., Tu, H., & Wang, S. (2017). Bank political connections and performance in China. Journal of Financial Stability, 32, 57–69. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jfs.2017.09.003
Jackowicz, K., Kowalewski, O., & Kozłowski, Ł. (2013). The influence of political factors on commercial banks in Central European countries. Journal of Financial Stability, 9(4), 759–777. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jfs.2012.08.001
Jasmine, R. N., Rokhim, R., & Hakim, A. R. (2020). Political connections on board of management and banking performance: Evidence from Indonesia. International Journal of Economics and Management, 14(2), 219–231.
Johnson, J. M., & Crain, W. M. (2004). Effects of term limits on fiscal performance: Evidence from democratic nations. Public Choice, 119(1–2), 73–90. https://doi.org/10.1023/b:puch.0000024183.74743.13
Khemani, S. (2004). Political cycles in a developing economy: Effect of elections in the Indian States. Journal of Development Economics, 73(1), 125–154. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jdeveco.2003.01.002
Khwaja, A. I., & Mian, A. (2005). Do Lenders Favor Politically Connected Firms? Rent Provision in an Emerging Financial Market. The Quarterly Journal of Economics, 120(4), 1371–1411. https://doi.org/10.1162/003355305775097524
Killins, R., Johnk, D., & Egly, P. (2020). The impact of financial regulation policy uncertainty on bank profits and risk. Studies in Economics and Finance, 37(4), 725–752. https://doi.org/10.1108/SEF-05-2019-0169
Klomp, J., & de Haan, J. (2013). Political budget cycles and election outcomes. Public Choice, 157(1–2), 245–267. https://doi.org/10.1007/s11127-012-9943-y
Koetter, M., & Popov, A. (2021). Political cycles in bank lending to the government. Review of Financial Studies, 34(6), 3138–3180. https://doi.org/10.1093/rfs/hhaa118
La Porta, R., Lopez‐De‐Silanes, F., & Shleifer, A. (2002). Government Ownership of Banks. Journal of Finance, 57(1), 265–301.
Lami, E., & Imami, D. (2019). Electoral Cycles of Tax Performance in Advanced Democracies. CESifo Economic Studies, 65(3), 275–295. https://doi.org/10.1093/cesifo/ifz008
Lee, J., & Kim, D. (2013). Bank performance and its determinants in Korea. Japan and the World Economy, 27, 83–94. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.japwor.2013.05.001
Levernier, W. (1992). The effect of relative economic performance on the outcome of gubernational elections. Public Choice, 74(2), 181–190. https://doi.org/10.1007/BF00140766
Marx, W., & Bornmann, L. (2016). Change of perspective: Bibliometrics from the point of view of cited references—a literature overview on approaches to the evaluation of cited references in bibliometrics. Scientometrics, 109(2), 1397–1415. https://doi.org/10.1007/s11192-016-2111-2
Micco, A., Panizza, U., & Yanez, M. (2007). Bank ownership and performance. Does politics matter? Journal of Banking & Finance, 31(1), 219–241. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jbankfin.2006.02.007
Moiseev, S. R. (2018). The independence of Central bank: Concept, methods and impact of global financial crisis. Zhournal Novoi Ekonomicheskoi Associacii, 40(4), 110–136. https://doi.org/10.31737/2221-2264-2018-40-4-5
Nordhaus, W. D. (1975). The Political Business Cycle. The Review of Economic Studies, 42(2), 169–190. https://doi.org/10.2307/2296528
Nordhaus, W. D., Alesina, A., & Schultze, C. L. (1989). Alternative Approaches to the Political Business Cycle. Brookings Papers on Economic Activity, 1989(2), 1–68. https://doi.org/10.2307/2534461
Oehler, A., Walker, T. J., & Wendt, S. (2013). Effects of election results on stock price performance: Evidence from 1980 to 2008. Managerial Finance, 39(8), 714–736. https://doi.org/10.1108/MF-May-2012-0126
Pantzalis, C., Strangeland, D., & Turtle, H. (2000). Political elections and the resolution of uncertainty: The international evidence. Journal of Banking & Finance, 24(10), 1575–1604. https://doi.org/10.1016/S0378-4266(99)00093-X
Pastor, L., & Veronesi, P. (2020). Political Cycles and Stock Returns. Journal of Political Economy. https://doi.org/10.1086/710532
Pessin, V. Z., Yamane, L. H., & Siman, R. R. (2022). Smart bibliometrics: An integrated method of science mapping and bibliometric analysis. Scientometrics. https://doi.org/10.1007/s11192-022-04406-6
Potrafke, N. (2012). Political cycles and economic performance in OECD countries: Empirical evidence from 1951-2006. Public Choice, 150(1–2), 155–179. https://doi.org/10.1007/s11127-010-9695-5
Rogoff, K. (1990). Equilibrium Political Budget Cycles. The American Economic Review, 80(1), 21–36.
Rudy, K. (2021). Political tax cycles: Cyclicality of the tax burden in election periods. Journal of Tax Reform, 7(2), 193–205. https://doi.org/10.15826/jtr.2021.7.2.098
Sakurai, S. N. (2009). Ciclos políticos nas funções orçamentárias dos municípios brasileiros: Uma análise para o período 1990 - 2005 via dados em painel. Estudos Econômicos (São Paulo), 39, 39–58. https://doi.org/10.1590/S0101-41612009000100002
Sakurai, S. N., & Gremaud, A. P. (2007). Political business cycles: Evidências empíricas para os municípios paulistas (1989-2001). Economia Aplicada, 11(1), 27–54. https://doi.org/10.1590/S1413-80502007000100002
Sakurai, S. N., & Menezes-Filho, N. (2011). Opportunistic and partisan election cycles in Brazil: New evidence at the municipal level. Public Choice, 148(1–2), 233–247. https://doi.org/10.1007/s11127-010-9654-1
Santos, R. N. M. dos, & Kobashi, N. Y. (2009, janeiro). Bibliometria, cientometria, infometria: Conceitos e aplicações [Article]. https://repositorio.ufpe.br/handle/123456789/10089
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Publicado
2025-09-11
Cómo citar
Silva, E. M., Nascimento, S. P., Albuquerque, A. A. de, & Carvalho, F. L. de. (2025). Ciclos políticos e desempenho dos bancos: uma revisão sistemática da literatura. Enfoque: Reflexão Contábil, 44(3), 63-84. https://doi.org/10.4025/enfoque.v44i3.68808
Sección
Original Articles
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