Ciclos políticos e desempenho dos bancos: uma revisão sistemática da literatura

Palavras-chave: Ciclos Políticos; Bancos; Performance do Banco; Gerenciamento de Resultados; Análise Bibliométrica.

Resumo

Objetivo: Este estudo mapeia a produção científica dos últimos anos (2000-2022) relacionada ao tema “Ciclos Políticos e Desempenho dos Bancos”.

Relevância: Sua relevância fundamenta-se na importância dos bancos como agentes econômicos, na contribuição dessas instituições para a melhoria da eficiência do mercado financeiro e no pressuposto de que fatores políticos podem influenciar seu desempenho. Destaca-se, ainda, a crescente expansão do tema na literatura.

Método: A metodologia utilizada baseou-se em uma abordagem exploratória e descritiva, investigando a literatura acerca das inter-relações entre os termos “ciclos políticos” e “desempenho dos bancos” por meio da análise bibliométrica.

Resultados: Os resultados revelam pesquisas de significativa importância em âmbito global e local, destacando os principais temas de pesquisa da atualidade associada à temática, bem como autores e países mais proeminentes. Destacam-se especialmente aqueles estudos que possuem forte relevância e impacto decisivo para a literatura científica sobre a temática.

Contribuições: Como contribuições, esta pesquisa apresenta os principais clusters de conhecimento, temas emergentes e oportunidades para pesquisas sobre a temática analisada.

 

Downloads

Não há dados estatísticos.

Biografia do Autor

Emmanuel Marques Silva, UFES

Doutorando do Programa de Pós-Graduação em Ciências Contábeis da Universidade Federal do Espírito Santo (UFES).

Schleiden Pinheiro Nascimento, UFES

Doutorando do Programa de Pós-Graduação em Ciências Contábeis da Universidade Federal do Espírito Santo (UFES).

Andrei Aparecido de Albuquerque, UFSCAR

Doutor em Administração de Organizações (USP) Universidade Federal de São Carlos (UFSCar). Departamento de Engenharia de Produção.

Flávio Leonel de Carvalho

Doutor em Engenharia de Produção (USP) Universidade Federal de São Carlos (UFSCar). Departamento de Administração

Referências

Afonso, M. H. F., Souza, J. V. de, Ensslin, S. R., & Ensslin, L. (2011). Como construir conhecimento sobre o tema de pesquisa? Aplicação do processo proknow-c na busca de literatura sobre avaliação do desenvolvimento sustentável. Revista de Gestão Social e Ambiental, 5(2), 2. https://doi.org/10.24857/rgsa.v5i2.424
Aldhamari, R., Nor, M., Boudiab, M., & Mas’ud, A. (2020). The impact of political connection and risk committee on corporate financial performance: Evidence from financial firms in Malaysia. Corporate governance-the international journal of business in society, 20(7), 1281–1305. https://doi.org/10.1108/CG-04-2020-0122
Alesina, A., & Stella, A. (2010). The politics of monetary policy (Vol. 3, Número C). https://www.scopus.com/inward/record.uri?eid=2-s2.0-78650229741&doi=10.1016%2fB978-0-444-53454-5.00006-2&partnerID=40&md5=197640570f2ed3f58b38237ac39afc7e
Arellano, M., & Bond, S. (1991). Some Tests of Specification for Panel Data: Monte Carlo Evidence and an Application to Employment Equations. Review of Economic Studies, 58(2), 277–297.
Bialkowski, J., Gottschalk, K., & Wisniewski, T. (2008). Stock market volatility around national elections. Journal Of Banking & Finance, 32(9), 1941–1953. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jbankfin.2007.12.021
BNDES. (2020). Relatório Anual 2020. https://www.bndes.gov.br/SiteBNDES/bndes/bndes_pt/Hotsites/Relatorio_Anual_2020/src/index.html
Boubakri, N., Mirzaei, A., & Samet, A. (2017). National culture and bank performance: Evidence from the recent financial crisis. Journal Of Financial Stability, 29, 36–56. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jfs.2017.02.003
Brey, N., Camilo, S., Marcon, B., & Alberton, A. (2011). A Estrutura de Propriedade das Corporações: Conexões Políticas sob a Perspectiva da Dependência de Recursos. Revista Ibero-Americana de Estratégia, 10. https://doi.org/10.5585/riae.v10i3.1791
Castro, V., & Martins, R. (2021). What drives the duration of credit booms? International Journal of Finance and Economics, 26(1), 1531–1549. https://doi.org/10.1002/ijfe.1862
Cole, S. (2009). Fixing Market Failures or Fixing Elections? Agricultural Credit in India. American economic journal-applied economics, 1(1), 219–250. https://doi.org/10.1257/app.1.1.219
Cornett, M., Guo, L., Khaksari, S., & Tehranian, H. (2010). The impact of state ownership on performance differences in privately-owned versus state-owned banks: An international comparison. Journal of Financial Intermediation, 19(1), 74–94. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jfi.2008.09.005
Cukierman, A., & Webb, S. B. (1995). Political influence on the central bank: International evidence. World Bank Economic Review, 9(3), 397–423. https://doi.org/10.1093/wber/9.3.397
DIEESE. (2020). Desempenho dos Bancos em 2020 (p. 22). DIEESE. https://www.dieese.org.br/desempenhodosbancos/2021/desempenhoDosBancos2021.pdf
Dinç, I. S. (2005). Politicians and banks: Political influences on government-owned banks in emerging markets. Journal of Financial Economics, 77(2), 453–479. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jfineco.2004.06.011
Doong, S., & Doan, A. (2021). The Influence of Political Uncertainty on Commercial Banks in Emerging Market Countries. International Journal of Public Administration. https://doi.org/10.1080/01900692.2021.1941100
Eichler, S., & Plaga, T. (2020). The economic record of the government and sovereign bond and stock returns around national elections. Journal of Banking & Finance, 118. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jbankfin.2020.105832
Englmaier, F., & Stowasser, T. (2017). Electoral cycles in savings bank lending. Journal of the European Economic Association, 15(2), 296–354. https://doi.org/10.1093/jeea/jvw005
Fialho, T. M. M. (1999). Ciclos políticos: Uma resenha. Brazilian Journal of Political Economy, 19, 381–400. https://doi.org/10.1590/0101-31571999-1016
Frigerio, M., & Vandone, D. (2020). European development banks and the political cycle. European Journal of Political Economy. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ejpoleco.2019.101852
Gonçalves, L. G., Funchal, B., & Bezerra Filho, J. E. (2017). A influência dos ciclos políticos nos investimentos públicos em infraestrutura: Um estudo nos estados brasileiros no período de 2003 a 2014. Revista de Administração Pública, 51(4), 462–481. https://doi.org/10.1590/0034-7612156337
Goodell, J., McGee, R., & McGroarty, F. (2020). Election uncertainty, economic policy uncertainty and financial market uncertainty: A prediction market analysis. Journal Of Banking & Finance, 110. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jbankfin.2019.105684
Gorton, G., & He, P. (2008). Bank credit cycles. Review of Economic Studies, 75(4), 1181–1214. https://doi.org/10.1111/j.1467-937X.2008.00497.x
Horn, C. H., & Feil, F. (2019). Instituições financeiras de desenvolvimento regional e os desafios do Sistema Nacional de Fomento. Economia e Sociedade, 28, 227–254. https://doi.org/10.1590/1982-3533.2019v28n1art11
Hung, C., Jiang, Y., Liu, F., Tu, H., & Wang, S. (2017). Bank political connections and performance in China. Journal of Financial Stability, 32, 57–69. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jfs.2017.09.003
Jackowicz, K., Kowalewski, O., & Kozłowski, Ł. (2013). The influence of political factors on commercial banks in Central European countries. Journal of Financial Stability, 9(4), 759–777. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jfs.2012.08.001
Jasmine, R. N., Rokhim, R., & Hakim, A. R. (2020). Political connections on board of management and banking performance: Evidence from Indonesia. International Journal of Economics and Management, 14(2), 219–231.
Johnson, J. M., & Crain, W. M. (2004). Effects of term limits on fiscal performance: Evidence from democratic nations. Public Choice, 119(1–2), 73–90. https://doi.org/10.1023/b:puch.0000024183.74743.13
Khemani, S. (2004). Political cycles in a developing economy: Effect of elections in the Indian States. Journal of Development Economics, 73(1), 125–154. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jdeveco.2003.01.002
Khwaja, A. I., & Mian, A. (2005). Do Lenders Favor Politically Connected Firms? Rent Provision in an Emerging Financial Market. The Quarterly Journal of Economics, 120(4), 1371–1411. https://doi.org/10.1162/003355305775097524
Killins, R., Johnk, D., & Egly, P. (2020). The impact of financial regulation policy uncertainty on bank profits and risk. Studies in Economics and Finance, 37(4), 725–752. https://doi.org/10.1108/SEF-05-2019-0169
Klomp, J., & de Haan, J. (2013). Political budget cycles and election outcomes. Public Choice, 157(1–2), 245–267. https://doi.org/10.1007/s11127-012-9943-y
Koetter, M., & Popov, A. (2021). Political cycles in bank lending to the government. Review of Financial Studies, 34(6), 3138–3180. https://doi.org/10.1093/rfs/hhaa118
La Porta, R., Lopez‐De‐Silanes, F., & Shleifer, A. (2002). Government Ownership of Banks. Journal of Finance, 57(1), 265–301.
Lami, E., & Imami, D. (2019). Electoral Cycles of Tax Performance in Advanced Democracies. CESifo Economic Studies, 65(3), 275–295. https://doi.org/10.1093/cesifo/ifz008
Lee, J., & Kim, D. (2013). Bank performance and its determinants in Korea. Japan and the World Economy, 27, 83–94. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.japwor.2013.05.001
Levernier, W. (1992). The effect of relative economic performance on the outcome of gubernational elections. Public Choice, 74(2), 181–190. https://doi.org/10.1007/BF00140766
Marx, W., & Bornmann, L. (2016). Change of perspective: Bibliometrics from the point of view of cited references—a literature overview on approaches to the evaluation of cited references in bibliometrics. Scientometrics, 109(2), 1397–1415. https://doi.org/10.1007/s11192-016-2111-2
Micco, A., Panizza, U., & Yanez, M. (2007). Bank ownership and performance. Does politics matter? Journal of Banking & Finance, 31(1), 219–241. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jbankfin.2006.02.007
Moiseev, S. R. (2018). The independence of Central bank: Concept, methods and impact of global financial crisis. Zhournal Novoi Ekonomicheskoi Associacii, 40(4), 110–136. https://doi.org/10.31737/2221-2264-2018-40-4-5
Nordhaus, W. D. (1975). The Political Business Cycle. The Review of Economic Studies, 42(2), 169–190. https://doi.org/10.2307/2296528
Nordhaus, W. D., Alesina, A., & Schultze, C. L. (1989). Alternative Approaches to the Political Business Cycle. Brookings Papers on Economic Activity, 1989(2), 1–68. https://doi.org/10.2307/2534461
Oehler, A., Walker, T. J., & Wendt, S. (2013). Effects of election results on stock price performance: Evidence from 1980 to 2008. Managerial Finance, 39(8), 714–736. https://doi.org/10.1108/MF-May-2012-0126
Pantzalis, C., Strangeland, D., & Turtle, H. (2000). Political elections and the resolution of uncertainty: The international evidence. Journal of Banking & Finance, 24(10), 1575–1604. https://doi.org/10.1016/S0378-4266(99)00093-X
Pastor, L., & Veronesi, P. (2020). Political Cycles and Stock Returns. Journal of Political Economy. https://doi.org/10.1086/710532
Pessin, V. Z., Yamane, L. H., & Siman, R. R. (2022). Smart bibliometrics: An integrated method of science mapping and bibliometric analysis. Scientometrics. https://doi.org/10.1007/s11192-022-04406-6
Potrafke, N. (2012). Political cycles and economic performance in OECD countries: Empirical evidence from 1951-2006. Public Choice, 150(1–2), 155–179. https://doi.org/10.1007/s11127-010-9695-5
Rogoff, K. (1990). Equilibrium Political Budget Cycles. The American Economic Review, 80(1), 21–36.
Rudy, K. (2021). Political tax cycles: Cyclicality of the tax burden in election periods. Journal of Tax Reform, 7(2), 193–205. https://doi.org/10.15826/jtr.2021.7.2.098
Sakurai, S. N. (2009). Ciclos políticos nas funções orçamentárias dos municípios brasileiros: Uma análise para o período 1990 - 2005 via dados em painel. Estudos Econômicos (São Paulo), 39, 39–58. https://doi.org/10.1590/S0101-41612009000100002
Sakurai, S. N., & Gremaud, A. P. (2007). Political business cycles: Evidências empíricas para os municípios paulistas (1989-2001). Economia Aplicada, 11(1), 27–54. https://doi.org/10.1590/S1413-80502007000100002
Sakurai, S. N., & Menezes-Filho, N. (2011). Opportunistic and partisan election cycles in Brazil: New evidence at the municipal level. Public Choice, 148(1–2), 233–247. https://doi.org/10.1007/s11127-010-9654-1
Santos, R. N. M. dos, & Kobashi, N. Y. (2009, janeiro). Bibliometria, cientometria, infometria: Conceitos e aplicações [Article]. https://repositorio.ufpe.br/handle/123456789/10089
Sapienza, P. (2004). The effects of government ownership on bank lending. Journal of Financial Economics, 72(2), 357–384. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jfineco.2002.10.002
Shen, C., & Lin, C. (2012). Why government banks underperform: A political interference view. Journal of Financial Intermediation, 21(2), 181–202. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jfi.2011.06.003
Singh, V. K., Srichandan, S. S., & Lathabai, H. H. (2022). ResearchGate and Google Scholar: How much do they differ in publications, citations and different metrics and why? Scientometrics, 127(3), 1515–1542. https://doi.org/10.1007/s11192-022-04264-2
Stahlschmidt, S., & Stephen, D. (2022). From indexation policies through citation networks to normalized citation impacts: Web of Science, Scopus, and Dimensions as varying resonance chambers. Scientometrics, 127(5), 2413–2431. https://doi.org/10.1007/s11192-022-04309-6
Valmorbida, S. (2016). Construção de conhecimento sobre avaliação de desempenho para gestão organizacional: Uma investigação nas pesquisas científicas internacionais. Revista Contemporânea de Contabilidade, 13, 123. https://doi.org/10.5007/2175-8069.2016v13n28p123
Wang, M.-Y., & Chou, L.-C. (2022). Political cycle and the financial lending scale. Applied Economics Letters, 29(6), 534–539. https://doi.org/10.1080/13504851.2021.1875114
Wang, Y., Zhang, C., & Li, K. (2022). A review on method entities in the academic literature: Extraction, evaluation, and application. Scientometrics, 127(5), 2479–2520. https://doi.org/10.1007/s11192-022-04332-7
Zaiane, S., & Moussa, F. B. (2021). What Drives Banking Profitability During Financial Crisis and Political Turmoil? Evidence from the MENA Region. Global Journal of Emerging Market Economies, 13(3), 380–407. https://doi.org/10.1177/09749101211031102
Zhu, J., & Liu, W. (2020). A tale of two databases: The use of Web of Science and Scopus in academic papers. Scientometrics, 123(1), 321–335. https://doi.org/10.1007/s11192-020-03387-8
Publicado
2025-09-11
Como Citar
Silva, E. M., Nascimento, S. P., Albuquerque, A. A. de, & Carvalho, F. L. de. (2025). Ciclos políticos e desempenho dos bancos: uma revisão sistemática da literatura. Enfoque: Reflexão Contábil, 44(3), 63-84. https://doi.org/10.4025/enfoque.v44i3.68808
Seção
Artigos Originais