Career trajectories of international athletes in the Portuguese athletics championships held from 1990 to 2019

Abstract

The study aimed to: (i) identify the career trajectories of international athletes in the Portuguese athletics championships held from 1990 to 2019, and (ii) model the sporting success of these athletes in international athletics competitions. All the participations of international athletes in the Portuguese athletics championships held from 1990 to 2019 were analysed (n = 2389; Indoor track and field, n = 947; Outdoor track and field, n = 1442). Sporting success, measured by winning a medal in international athletics competitions, was analysed using local non-parametric regression (locally estimated scatterplot smoothing, LOESS) for curves obtained from more than 10 observations, and logistic regression models were used to explain the probability of winning a medal in international championships (models: Age, Grade and Classification). It was found that ~11% of female athletes (PC, 10.8%; AL, 11.3%) and ~7% of male athletes (PC, 8.5%; AL, 5.8%) who took part in the Portuguese championships at a young age went on to win international medals. In a comparative analysis between medal-winning and non-medal-winning international athletes, it was observed that medal-winning athletes (i) take part in the Portuguese championships at a higher age (consequently, with younger age groups); and (ii) obtain better rankings and marks. The modelling analysis of the sporting success of international athletes confirms the results obtained from the visual analyses, observing that: (i) the higher the average age at participation in the Portuguese championships, the greater the probability of winning an international medal; (ii) having a career path with participation in the Portuguese championships at a young age does not alter the probability of winning an international medal; and (iii) the lower (better) the average ranking, the greater the probability of winning an international medal.